Journal Article
Winners and Losers From Climate Change: An Analysis of Climate Thresholds for Tree Growth and Survival for Roughly 150 Species Across the Contiguous United States
Christopher M. Clark; Justin G. Coughlin; Jennifer Phelan; Gray Martin; Kemen Austin; Marwa Salem; Robert D. Sabo; Kevin Horn; R. Quinn Thomas; Rebecca M. Dalton
Global Change Biology · Vol. 30, Issue 12 · 2024
Abstract
Changes in temperature and precipitation are already influencing US forests and that will continue in the future even as we mitigate climate change. Using spatiotemporally matched data for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), we used simulated annealing to estimate critical thresholds for changes in the growth and survival of roughly 150 tree species (153 spp. for growth, 159 spp. for survival) across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We found that growth of nearly one‐third of tree species assessed (44 spp.) decreased with any increase in MAT (42–49 species), whereas fewer responded negatively to projected regional trends in MAP (