Abstract
Compound dry–hot events (CDHEs) are intensifying globally, positioning the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as a critical sentinel for understanding semi‐arid ecosystem stability under climate change. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation resilience in the YRB (2001–2023) by integrating satellite‐derived vegetation indices (NDVI), meteorological data, and Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicators. Testing the hypothesis of a “Resilience Paradox,” we reveal a counter‐intuitive buffering mechanism: while high‐intensity and prolonged CDHEs accelerated resilience loss, frequent but sublethal events significantly slowed this decline by triggering ecological memory and adaptive hardening. However, this buffering capacity is not limitless; mediation analysis identifies soil moisture as a strict boundary condition, meaning “training effects” fail in severely water‐limited zones. Spatially, we delineate three functional management zones requiring distinct strategies: (1) conservation of the hydrological buffer in the water‐abundant Source Region; (2) strict adherence to carrying capacity limits in the frequency‐driven Loess Plateau to prevent tipping; and (3) active mitigation of prolonged stress in the agricultural Lower Reaches. By linking regional resilience mechanisms to global dryland dynamics, this study offers predictive insights for ecological restoration initiatives—such as the Great Green Wall—shifting the focus from maximizing biomass to sustaining functional persistence under future compound extremes.