Journal Article
Hyperdominant Trees Reveal Savanna Vulnerability Under Climate Change
Facundo Alvarez; Ben Hur Marimon‐Junior; Beatriz Schwantes Marimon; Wesley Jonatar Alves da Cruz; Norberto Gomes Ribeiro Júnior; Raiane Gonçalves Béu; Polyanna da Conceição Bispo; Aldair de Souza Medeiros; Glécio Machado Siqueira; Marcelo Leandro Bueno; Fabiana de Gois Aquino; Frederico Augusto Guimarães Guilherme; José Roberto Rodrigues Pinto; Henrique Augusto Mews; Bruno Machado Teles Walter; Sabrina do Couto de Miranda; Ricardo Flores Haidar; Eddie Lenza de Oliveira; Renata Dias Françoso Brandão; Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi; Cássia Beatriz Rodrigues Munhoz; Edson de Souza Lima; Maria Antônia Carniello; Mercedes Maria da Cunha Bustamante; Paulo Sérgio Morandi; Edmar Almeida de Oliveira; Zenésio Finger; Eder Carvalho das Neves; Fernando Elias; Immaculada Oliveras Menor; Simone Matias de Almeida Reis; Oliver Phillips; Ted R. Feldpausch
Global Change Biology · Vol. 32, Issue 4 · 2026
Abstract
The Cerrado biome, spanning ~2 million km 2 , is one of the most extensive and biodiverse tropical savannas, yet it is paradoxically dominated by only 30 hyperdominant tree species (~2% of all species, > 50% of all stems). However, their vulnerability to climate change and the effectiveness of current conservation efforts remain uncertain. By combining (i) species distribution models calibrated with edaphic‐climatic predictors and occurrence data for hyperdominant Cerrado trees with (ii) functional‐trait analyses related to ecological strategies (leaf economics, bark investment, ecophysiology, drought tolerance, regeneration, and dispersal), we identified the biomass production and reproductive traits that best predict species persistence under high‐emission scenarios (RCP8.5). Currently, only 427,980 km 2 (~17.4%) of the modeled potential environmental suitability falls within protected areas; under future climate scenarios, this protected suitable area is projected to decline by ~45.9% to 231,377 km 2 (~18.1%). This loss, resulting from land conversion with the expansion of agricultural frontiers and fire events, highlights a mismatch in current regional conservation priorities, overlooking the needs of the Cerrado and its associated biodiversity. Given ongoing land‐use change and that 58% of remaining native vegetation occurs on private lands, this mismatch highlights the urgent need to align conservation and agricultural policy. Functional trait analyses revealed a clear gradient from acquisitive “fast” to conservative “slow” strategies, reflecting trade‐offs in water‐use efficiency and biomass allocation, with leaf structural and reproductive traits best predicting species resilience to climate change. Our results indicate that a small subset of hyperdominant species not only forms current community structure but also signals the biome's resilience/vulnerability to climate change. Conservation planning should prioritize identified climate refuges and be based on functional traits to buffer the loss of functional and structural integrity in one of the world's richest and most threatened savanna ecosystems.