The effects of temperature extremes on survival in two semi‐arid Australian bird communities over three decades, with predictions to 2104

Abstract

Aim Organisms in arid and semi‐arid regions are frequently exposed to climatic extremes and accordingly among the most vulnerable to climate change. Studies of seasonal differences in vital rates, which mediate effects of climate on viability, are rare in arid species, limiting ability to project population trends. We quantified survival patterns for two bird communities as a function of exposure to temperature extremes in winter and summer, then projected survival patterns to 2104. Location Semi‐arid eastern Australia. Time period 1986–2016; 1986–2104. Major taxa studied Birds. Methods Using mark–recapture time‐dependent Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and data for 37 species from two >30‐year ringing programmes, we tested for effects on 6‐monthly survival of exposure to temperatures >38 and Results Survival probability declined strongly with increasing exposure to days >38°C and to a lesser extent to days Main conclusions We highlight the significance of temperature extremes for species' persistence in arid and semi‐arid regions, comprising 70% of Australia's landmass, and 40% globally. Our demography‐based results are consistent with physiological‐based projections evaluating avian survival in arid and semi‐arid regions globally and suggest rising summer temperatures pose a risk to population persistence in these regions.

Bibliographic Information