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Journal Article

Assessing and improving the transferability of current global spatial prediction models

Marvin Ludwig; Alvaro Moreno‐Martinez; Norbert Hölzel; Edzer Pebesma; Hanna Meyer
Global Ecology and Biogeography · Vol. 32, Issue 3 · pp. 356-368 · 2023

Abstract

Aim Global‐scale maps of the environment are an important source of information for researchers and decision makers. Often, these maps are created by training machine learning algorithms on field‐sampled reference data using remote sensing information as predictors. Since field samples are often sparse and clustered in geographic space, model prediction requires a transfer of the trained model to regions where no reference data are available. However, recent studies question the feasibility of predictions far beyond the location of training data. Innovation We propose a novel workflow for spatial predictive mapping that leverages recent developments in this field and combines them in innovative ways with the aim of improved model transferability and performance assessment. We demonstrate, evaluate and discuss the workflow with data from recently published global environmental maps. Main conclusions Reducing predictors to those relevant for spatial prediction leads to an increase of model transferability and map accuracy without a decrease of prediction quality in areas with high sampling density. Still, reliable gap‐free global predictions were not possible, highlighting that global maps and their evaluation are hampered by limited availability of reference data.

Bibliographic Information

JournalGlobal Ecology and Biogeography
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2023-03-01
Publication Year2023
Volume32
Issue3
Pages356-368
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN1466-822X
eISSN1466-8238
DOI10.1111/geb.13635
SubjectEcology & Organismal Biology

Access Information

NARA Access Coverage1998-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/14668238
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
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