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Journal Article

Environmental Predictability in Phylogenetic Comparative Analysis: How to Measure It and Does It Matter?

Ming Liu; Louis Bell‐Roberts; Carlos A. Botero; Charlie K. Cornwallis; Stuart A. West
Global Ecology and Biogeography · Vol. 34, Issue 8 · 2025

Abstract

Aim Abiotic environmental conditions shape ecological and evolutionary processes, yet quantifying their influence on organisms remains challenging due to variation among metrics and their intercorrelations. This study evaluates the utility of temporal environmental predictability measures and assesses their explanatory power in phylogenetic comparative analyses. Innovation We systematically compare widely used metrics of predictability and explore their correlations with environmental means and variances in a global meteorological dataset. Using cooperative breeding birds as a case study, we assess the impact of including predictability metrics in phylogenetic comparative analyses. We demonstrate the consequences of choosing specific metrics and the trade‐offs between increased data inclusion and model interpretability. Main Conclusions Predictability metrics, though intuitively meaningful, have been conceptualised and quantified with diverse approaches. We found that different measures of predictability can exhibit contrasting global patterns and strong correlations with other environmental quantities. Therefore, our findings caution against overloading statistical analyses with correlated predictors, highlighting the need for a thoughtful selection of environmental metrics to avoid spurious interpretations in ecological and evolutionary studies.

Bibliographic Information

JournalGlobal Ecology and Biogeography
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2025-08-01
Publication Year2025
Volume34
Issue8
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN1466-822X
eISSN1466-8238
DOI10.1111/geb.70108
SubjectEcology & Organismal Biology

Access Information

NARA Access Coverage1998-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/14668238
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
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