Abstract
Many public land management programs in the southeastern United States have been restoring the longleaf pine forest for more than 20 years, which includes intensive treatment with fire, thinning, chemical control of competition, and tree planting. A shift to more passive management (prescribed burning alone) is anticipated once a critical level of longleaf pine has been established. It remains unclear whether this longleaf pine threshold has been reached and whether intensive management should continue at Fort Benning, Georgia. Using the Landis-II forest landscape model, changes in tree species and forest types were estimated from 2017 to 2117 under four forest management scenarios, ranging from passive (“burn only”) to intensive (“proactive”). The desired future condition includes 75% of upland forest dominated by longleaf pine (>49.5% composition). The proactive scenario resulted in the desired future forest condition, whereas reactive and passive scenarios did not. These results suggest a critical threshold of longleaf pine forest has not been reached at Fort Benning and therefore intensive management approaches are still required. This study shows that even well-established populations of longleaf pine on public lands require maintenance and continued intensive restoration to reach desired forest-wide conditions.