How circadian variability of the heart rate and plasma electrolytes concentration influence the cardiac electrophysiology – model-based case study

Abstract

The circadian rhythm of cardiac electrophysiology is dependent on many physiological and biochemical factors. Provided, that models describing the circadian patterns of cardiac activity and/or electrophysiology which have been verified to the acceptable level, modeling and simulation can give answers to many of heart chronotherapy questions. The aim of the study was to assess the performance of the circadian models implemented in Cardiac Safety Simulator v 2.2 (Certara, Sheffield, UK) (CSS), as well as investigate the influence ofcircadian rhythms on the simulation results in terms of cardiac safety. The simulations which were run in CSS accounted for inter-individual and intra-individual variability. Firstly, the diurnal variations in QT interval length in a healthy population were simulated accounting for heart rate (HR) circadian changes alone, or with concomitant diurnal variations of plasma ion concentrations. Next, tolterodine was chosen as an exemplary drug for PKPD modelling exercise to assess the role of circadian rhythmicity in the prediction of drug effects on QT interval. The results of the simulations were in line with clinical observations, what can serve as a verification of the circadian models implemented in CSS. Moreover, the results have suggested that the circadian variability of the electrolytes balance is the main factor influencing QT circadian pattern. The fluctuation of ion concentration increases the intra-subject variability of predicted drug-triggered QT corrected for HR (QTc) prolongation effect and, in case of modest drug effect on QTc interval length, allows to capture this effect.

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