Long-term shifts in the spatial distribution of Common Cranes Grus grus

Abstract

Migratory bird distributions are inherently dynamic and vary with seasons, but are also increasingly influenced by climate and land-use changes. Understanding these shifts is crucial for interpreting ecosystem dynamics and guiding future conservation efforts. In this study, we analysed 187,779 resightings (1985–2021) of 5,120 colour-banded Common Cranes ( Grus grus ), originating from 8 northern European countries, to examine long-term spatiotemporal distribution dynamics along the Western and Central European flyways. Our results show that the flyway use has remained largely consistent with the previous studies: most cranes follow the Western European flyway, wintering in France and Spain, whilst a smaller proportion follow the Central European flyway, wintering in Hungary and occasionally reaching Israel and North Africa. However, we also observed a pronounced northward shift in wintering distribution over the past 4 decades. At the same time, breeding distributions showed a slight southward expansion, potentially reflecting both population growth and changes in marking effort. Our results demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring in detecting range shifts and highlight the need for adaptive conservation planning in the face of accelerating climate and land-use change.

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