Abstract
The time‐lagged effect of summer soil moisture (SM) on ensuing winter climate in eastern China is examined. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in early winter (November) and associated air temperature over eastern China are shown to significantly correlate with the previous summer (June–August) SM in eastern China with a center located at the lower reaches of the Yellow River (LRYR). The positive anomalies of summer SM, persisting for a few months, may act as a buffer to defer the ground cooling of eastern China in early winter mainly through modulating thermal capacity. And the warmer ground of eastern China could lead to a warmer air temperature above the ground through direct land–air interactions and through indirectly adjusting the EAWM which is sensitive to the land–sea thermal contrast. These results provide an empirical predictor for the EAWM and for the variability of air temperature over eastern China in early winter. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society