Inter‐annual variation of tropical cyclones simulated by GEOS‐5 AGCM with modified convection scheme

Abstract

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS‐5) global climate model with a 50‐km horizontal resolution is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) to examine the fidelity of the seasonal‐mean and inter‐annual variation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic (NATL). The standard Relaxed Arakawa Schubert (RAS) deep convection scheme is modified to improve the representation of TCs, where the scheme implements a stochastic limit of the cumulus entrainment rate. The modification drives mid‐ and upper‐tropospheric cooling and low‐ to mid‐tropospheric drying in the background state, which tends to increase atmospheric instability. This enables the model to increase convective variability on an intra‐seasonal timescale and improve the simulation of intense storms. Five‐member ensemble runs with the modified RAS scheme for 12 years (1998–2009) exhibit realistic spatial distributions in the climatological‐mean TC development area and their pathways over WNP and NATL. The GCM is able to reproduce the inter‐annual variation of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by prescribing yearly varying observed SST even though the individual TC intensity is still underpredicted. A sensitivity of TC activity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase is also reproduced realistically over WNP in terms of the spatial pattern changes in the main development region and TC pathways. However, the model exhibits a notable deficiency in NATL in reproducing the observed inter‐annual variation of TC activity and the sensitivity to the ENSO.

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