Projected evolution of drought characteristics in Vietnam based on CORDEX‐SEA downscaled CMIP5 data

Abstract

In this study, the projected drought characteristics over Vietnam for the future periods of the middle (2046–2065) and end of the 21st century (2080–2099) were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The drought characteristics (duration, severity, intensity, inter‐arrival time, and geographic extent) were estimated based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The PDSI was calculated using temperature and precipitation data from six regional climate downscaling experiments and their ensemble conducted by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment‐Southeast Asia (CORDEX‐SEA) project. Projected changes of drought characteristics in the future periods were determined with respect to those in the baseline period 1986–2005. Results show biases in the regional climate model (RCM) outputs, namely an underestimation of temperature and an overestimation of precipitation, which also affect the representation of drought characteristics by overestimating the PDSI. In terms of projections, substantial increases of drought duration, severity and intensity, and decreases in the inter‐arrival time are found over the Red River Delta, northern parts of the North Central sub‐region, parts of the Central Highlands and over southern Vietnam. The droughts are projected to be more widespread under scenario RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, especially in southern Vietnam. With the increasing likelihood of droughts in Vietnam as a result of climate change, sustainable water resources management should be taken into account for agriculture, natural ecosystems and social development.

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