The role of the Near East surface pressure variations in recent past trends of wet season precipitation in the Levant

Abstract

Using the ERA‐20C reanalysis and CRU TS4.03 observation based data, the study indicates a role of the rise in October–March mean seasonal surface pressure over the Near East (NE) in an intensification of moist air mass transport from Africa into the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region during the last several decades. This yet non‐addressed relevant mechanism allows an explanation for the actual less intense than over the rest of the Mediterranean Region (MR) precipitation decline as well as the rise in frequency of extreme precipitation events in the southern part of the EM under the global warming conditions in recent decades. This factor appears to be contributing in slowing the global warming associated precipitation decline in the southeastern EM and significant changes in the structure of the regional precipitation leading to an increase in the contribution of extreme precipitation associated with an intensification of the moist air mass transport over northeastern Africa—Arabian Peninsula area.

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