Assessment of hot weather seasonal temperatures over India using Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System hindcasts

Abstract

The present study evaluates the skill of seasonal forecasts of temperatures over India during April to June using the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) model hindcasts, which are initialized with February initial conditions. Model hindcast data of 1981–2017 period have been used for the analysis. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded temperature dataset has been used for model verifications. The MMCFS model captures the annual cycle of temperatures reasonably well, but with a higher mean and smaller variability compared to observations. The model hindcasts show a significant skill for seasonal forecasts of temperatures over most of northwest and central India. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis suggests that the model captures temporal and spatial characteristics of different modes of maximum temperatures but with less accuracy. The model teleconnections of maximum temperatures with Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are weakly represented. The model is also found capable of predicting the spatial distribution of heat wave characteristics such as heat wave frequency (HWF) and heat wave duration (HWD) reasonably well. The present study suggests that the MMCFS Model can be used to generate a useful outlook of hot weather seasonal temperatures and heat waves over India.

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