Performance and changes of high‐resolution (1 km) surface air temperature in Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions

Abstract

Surface air temperatures are significant indicators of environmental and climatic change that affect a diverse set of physical systems including permafrost. Most temperature products, such as gridded or reanalysis data, are still at a relatively low spatial resolution, limiting the ability to simulate heterogeneous permafrost changes and leading to large uncertainties. Here we apply a downscaling method based on elevation to obtain high‐resolution surface air temperatures from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions. Root‐mean‐square errors and mean absolute errors after downscaling are reduced by 34 and 37%, respectively, relative to meteorological site data and gridded observations from the Climatic Research Unit. Compared to the downscaled surface air temperature data, nondownscaled model projections overestimate by 0.12–0.39°C in the discontinuous, isolated, and sporadic permafrost regions and underestimate up to 0.18°C in the continuous permafrost region under different emission scenarios. The warming rates in Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions were 0.093°C/10 year during the historical (1850–2014) period and are projected to be 0.22°C/10 year for SSP1‐2.6, 0.48°C/10 year for SSP2‐4.5, 0.75°C/10 year for SSP3‐7.0, and 0.95°C/10 year for SSP5‐8.5 during 2015–2100, which is 1.4–1.6 times the warming of nonpermafrost regions. Warming rates in high latitudes are 1.2–1.7 times higher than those in high‐elevation regions. Continuous permafrost regions' warming will be 1.2–1.4 times higher than in other permafrost regions. For permafrost with high ground ice content, warming will be 1.1 times greater than in permafrost regions with medium or low ground ice content.

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