Dominant modes of precipitation over Africa, and their associated atmospheric circulations from observations

Abstract

This study uses the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to identify and describe continental‐scale seasonal (MAM, JJA, SON and DJF) precipitation modes over Africa based on observation (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre; GPCC) and reanalysis (ERA5) data from 1982 to 2014. Using composite analysis, we attempt to identify the atmospheric circulations (wind and relative humidity) associated with each precipitation mode. Precipitation from ERA5 has a good agreement with that of GPCC, as observed in the good spatial congruence in the EOF analysis and precipitation composites. The EOF results for each season show that the loading patterns of Mode 1 (variance >20% for all seasons) match the long‐term mean precipitation distribution. Atmospheric conditions across the continent are primarily driven by the four main high‐pressure systems (Azores, St. Helena, Arabian and Mascarene High) that influence moisture distribution and subsequently modulate the seasonal rain belt distribution. Modes 2 (variance >11% for all seasons) and 3 (variance >10% for all seasons) are deviations of the leading mode associated with smaller‐scale atmospheric systems. However, large‐scale factors still dominate the overall precipitation pattern by modulating the seasonal energy transfer between the hemispheres. The results provide a comprehensive understanding of the continental‐wide African seasonal precipitation modes and the associated atmospheric circulation from observations. The findings can be used as a reference for future work using model data for historical and projection studies.

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