Abstract
Understanding of long‐term drought variability in the Himalayan region is crucial for sustainable water resource management and climate adaptation. We analysed the self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on a well‐established “signal‐free” standardised tree‐ring width (TRW) chronology of Cedrus deodara (Roxb. ex D.Don) G.Don (deodar) from Lug Valley of Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh, Northwest Himalayas. Tree growth climate analysis indicated that the pre‐monsoon precipitation and the scPDSI positively affected the radial growth, whereas temperature had a negative influence. The strongest correlation between the scPDSI and TRW chronology ( r = 0.636, p n = 114) during the March, April, and May (MAM) period indicates that the pre‐monsoon drought scPDSI‐MAM is the dominant growth‐limiting factor. Using a linear regression model, we reconstructed drought variability back to 1793 ce , explaining 40.5% of the total variance. The reconstruction identified prolonged drought periods (1794–1825, 1888–1980, and 2000–2010) with increasing frequency and intensity in recent decades, while pluvial conditions prevailed during 1825 to 1875 and 1982 to 1998. The multi‐taper method spectral analysis identified the presence of both low and high frequency cycles of 80, 33, 6, 2.3, and 2 years within the reconstructed time series, indicating periodic climatic variability. Spatial correlation with tropical sea surface temperatures indicates strong teleconnections with global climate drivers like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings underscore the rising threat of pre‐monsoon droughts to regional hydrology, agriculture, and socio‐economic stability. As droughts become more frequent, proactive policies and adaptive strategies are essential to minimise future risks acorss this region.