Future Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation: Exposure Risks for Urban Populations and Cropland in North China

Abstract

North China faces increasing risks from extreme precipitation under climate change, yet projections integrating socio‐economic dynamics with high‐resolution climate models remain limited. Leveraging the latest version of the NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6 (NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections) from NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) datasets across SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, this study quantifies future extreme precipitation impacts on urban populations and cropland in two critical periods: 2031–2050 (mid‐century) and 2081–2100 (end‐century). Through the Multivariable Integrated Evaluation Tool (MVIETool), we demonstrate that NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6 reduces regional precipitation biases by 79% compared to CMIP6 (from +133.16 mm/day to −27.00 mm/day), despite persistent uncertainties in extreme intensity indices. Projections reveal a pronounced intensification of extreme precipitation, with R99p (extremely wet day precipitation) increasing by 127%–131% and CDD (consecutive dry days) decreasing by 12%–17% in 2081–2100 under SSP5‐8.5, signalling a transition toward wetter conditions. Exposure analyses indicate that 38.24 million citizens (26.32% of the urban population) and 49,900 km 2 cropland (5.87% of the area) in North China may face record‐breaking precipitation events by the end of the century under SSP5‐8.5, primarily concentrated in coastal megacities and the North China Plain. These findings underscore the urgency of scenario‐specific adaptation strategies, including ‘sponge city’ retrofitting in high‐exposure zones and precision agriculture tailored to precipitation regime shifts. Our integrated framework advances regional climate risk assessments by reconciling dynamical downscaling limitations with SSP‐driven socio‐economic uncertainties.

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