Disentangling the Role of Local and Global Climatic Factors in Modulating Meteorological Drought Propagation Over Pakistan During 1981–2020

Abstract

This study evaluates the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological drought (MD) characteristics in Pakistan on monthly and seasonal scale during 1981–2020 using Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Potential Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The Mann‐Kendall and Sen's slope tests are used to assess the magnitude and trends of MD, while multiple linear regression (MLR) and wavelet coherence (WTC) are used to assess the influence of local and global climatic factors in modulating MD. Results revealed 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2018 as major drought years. The southern parts of Pakistan (i.e., Sindh, Balochistan, and Southern Punjab) showed strong vulnerability to higher frequency and long duration, whereas the northern regions showed more severity to MD's. MD's prevailed with significant correlation with NDVI in cropland during each season, while in rangeland, the significant association was in pre‐monsoon and monsoon seasons. The MLR model exhibits that after precipitation, total evaporation (TE) has a comparatively higher contribution to MD prediction in Pakistan. Among teleconnections the coherence of ENSO with MD was more pronounced followed by AMO and IOD. The influence of positive phase IOD on MD variability was more significant across study region. Additionally, El Niño and La Niña manifest their significant association with SPI in western part of the country. These findings offer crucial information for better water management strategies and improving crops drought resiliency which is essential for sustainable agricultural practices and economic growth.

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