Wildfire Hazard in Poland in a Warming Climate: Past and Future Impact of Extreme Weather

Abstract

The rise in temperature increases the occurrence of various meteorological extremes and contributes to a higher incidence of wildfires. This paper examines the meteorological factors that influence the potential wildfire danger. We analyse fire danger indices derived from meteorological stations with wildfire data for 2007–2023 in Poland and divide them into seven physiographic regions. The paper researches how wildfire conditions in Poland were changed from the past to now and explores how much the fire frequency will increase in an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate model projections (CMIP6). Additionally, we characterise the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfires in Poland between 2007 and 2023, including seasonal and regional variability. We also look at how the maximum daily temperature and relative humidity affect the number of wildfires that happen in two chosen regions. Our study provides evidence that conditions influencing wildfire hazard in Poland have changed since the 1970s and may intensify in the near and far future. Authors of the paper indicate that future wildfire risk linked with maximum temperature may rise with the current 99th percentile (32°C) to the future threshold of the 99th percentile by 2.5–5.3‐fold over the next 30 years and 10.4–14.5‐fold over the far future threshold of the 99th percentile of 2061–2090 depending on the considered climate change scenarios. A proactive and integrated approach to wildfire management is therefore needed to reduce future fire risk in the region.

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