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Transition in Köppen Climate Zones and Its Impacts on Hydroclimatic Extremes Across India

Arpit Tiwari; Preethi Nanjundan; Ravi Ranjan Kumar; Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna
International Journal of Climatology · Vol. 46, Issue 8 · 2026

Abstract

Shifting climatic zones across India are reshaping the country's hydroclimatic balance, with significant consequences for drought behaviour and water security. This study examines how spatial changes in Köppen–Geiger climate zones between two climatological periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) are influencing long‐term drought characteristics. Using high‐resolution gridded rainfall and temperature data from the India Meteorological Department, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used to assess drought intensity and extent across five major climate categories: tropical, arid, temperate, continental and polar. Results reveal a noticeable expansion of the arid zone by 3.86% and a contraction of the temperate zone by 6.94%, indicating a transition toward warmer and drier climates. These spatial shifts have altered regional drought behaviour, with formerly moderate zones experiencing more frequent and intense droughts. The arid and tropical zones, where expansion is observed, show increasing drought severity, largely driven by rising evapotranspiration due to temperature increases of 0.12°C–0.25°C/decade ( T max ) and 0.10°C–0.20°C/decade ( T min ). In contrast, regions where the temperate climate is receding are showing a loss of climatic buffering capacity against drought. SPEI captures more widespread and severe drought events than SPI, underscoring the increasing role of thermal stress in water balance anomalies. This study highlights that changes in the spatial extent of climate zones are a key driver of evolving drought patterns in India. Recognising these shifts is essential for improving temperature‐sensitive drought monitoring and formulating zone‐specific adaptation strategies in the face of accelerating climate change.

Bibliographic Information

JournalInternational Journal of Climatology
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2026-06-30
Publication Year2026
Volume46
Issue8
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN0899-8418
eISSN1097-0088
DOI10.1002/joc.70381
SubjectAtmospheric Sciences

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NARA Access Coverage1996-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/10970088
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