Spatial and Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northwestern Himalayan Region: A Comprehensive Analysis of Trends and Extremes

Abstract

Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation is critical for assessing hydroclimatic risks in mountainous regions. This study investigates long‐term trends and variability of extreme precipitation across the northwestern Himalayas, encompassing Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, using high‐resolution CHIRPS data validated against station observations and a suite of ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices). The results reveal a pronounced hydroclimatic contrast between the two regions. Jammu & Kashmir, particularly the Kashmir Valley and Pir Panjal range, exhibits increasing seasonal and annual precipitation along with a significant rise in rainy days, indicating a shift toward more frequent moderate‐intensity rainfall. In contrast, Ladakh shows predominantly neutral to declining precipitation trends, accompanied by a marked increase in consecutive dry days and a declining contribution of extreme precipitation events, reflecting intensifying aridity. Extreme precipitation indices (Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT, R99pTOT) display largely decreasing or spatially inconsistent trends across the region, suggesting a transition toward a precipitation regime dominated by frequency rather than intensity. These findings highlight growing hydroclimatic divergence, underscoring the need for enhanced flood preparedness in wetter regions and strengthened water conservation strategies in arid high‐altitude areas.

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