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Journal Article

Frequent, Intense and Prolonged Human‐Perceived Heat Waves Over the Arabian Peninsula in Recent Decades

Safi Ullah; Vinodhkumar Buri; Salah Basem Ajjur; Azfar Hussain; Waheed Ullah; Amal Abdullah Al‐Ghafri; Tareq Al‐Ansari; Sami G. Al‐Ghamdi
International Journal of Climatology · 2026

Abstract

The Arabian Peninsula (AP) is experiencing rapid warming and a sharp increase in heat waves (HWs). While previous studies often rely on air temperature thresholds or single‐day heat index exceedances, these metrics may not fully capture the cumulative physiological stress and public health risks associated with multi‐day human‐perceived HWs. This study addresses this gap by employing the percentile‐based wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT), derived from ERA5‐Land reanalysis data, as a human‐centric metric to evaluate heat stress and characterise human‐perceived HWs across the AP during 1950–2025, relative to 1961–1990. Results reveal distinct spatial patterns across the AP, with the highest warm‐season heat stress trend over central and northern inland and eastern coastal regions. WBGT exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle, peaking during July–August and shows a significant increasing trend of 0.176–0.347°C decade −1 , with a substantial rise in recent decades. Long‐term trends indicate a significant intensification of HW characteristics; HW number (~0.042–0.487 events decade −1 ), HW days (~0.134–2.446 days decade −1 ), HW length (~0.003–0.377 days decade −1 ), HW duration (0.057–0.818 days decade −1 ), HW magnitude (~0.031–0.048°C decade −1 ) and HW amplitude (~0.004–0.190°C decade −1 ), with stronger accelerations in the post‐1990s. Wavelet coherence analysis indicates ENSO exhibits the most persistent interannual and decadal coherences with all HW characteristics, confirming it as a key oceanic driver in exacerbating HW activities in AP. These findings highlight the growing impacts of human‐perceived HWs across the AP and show the effectiveness of percentile‐based WBGT in assessing cumulative physiological strain for supporting heat‐risk adaptation strategies.

Bibliographic Information

JournalInternational Journal of Climatology
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2026-07-15
Publication Year2026
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN0899-8418
eISSN1097-0088
DOI10.1002/joc.70510
SubjectAtmospheric Sciences

Access Information

NARA Access Coverage1996-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/10970088
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
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