Abstract
Groundwater management policies will need to be revised in many Mediterranean countries, in light of the impact of climate change and the increasing demand for water. In this paper, we analyse stakeholder perceptions of three groundwater policy scenarios which respectively assume a strengthening of state intervention, the introduction of market regulation mechanisms, and the transfer of regulation responsibility to farmers. The method consists of organizing scenario workshops with experts, institutional representatives and farmers. It is applied in two case studies in France and Portugal. From a methodological viewpoint, the research demonstrates farmers' ability to contribute to an exploratory assessment of possible future water management scenarios. From a policy viewpoint, it clarifies expectations concerning state intervention and self‐regulation by farmers. It also provides some insights regarding the acceptability of tradable groundwater permits in two European contexts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.