Assessment of Land Subsidence and Climate Change Impacts on Inundation Hazard in Southwestern Taiwan

Abstract

Excessive extraction of groundwater resulting in serious land subsidence as well as intensified rainfall and storm surges due to climate change complicate the flooding problems in southwest Taiwan. A coupled set of different models was proposed to analyze the effect of inundation risk considering land subsidence and climate change. Three models, including the groundwater flow model, land subsidence model, and the physiographic drainage–inundation model, were used in this study, enabling simulations of different considerations. The results revealed that more severe flooding would result from land subsidence and climate change. The findings of a 21% increase in flood area with an inundation depth greater than 1.5 m for 200‐yr return period events clearly showed more severe flooding would result from land subsidence. The flooding in those severely subsiding areas would increase in a range from 3.4 to 21.5% when further considering climate change. While the simulation results revealed that the flood area could be decreased by as much as 50% taking into account the implemented policies, the coastal region would still be exposed to a high risk of being flooded. It thus suggests that policies focusing on infrastructure would be insufficient, and river basin management as well as spatial planning should be investigated further. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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