Abstract
Europe stands at the threshold of a transformative circular economy transition across the European Union (EU). However, to achieve a sustainable framework that improves resource use, transforms waste generator behavior, and guides high-polluting industries toward circular practices, the EU needs more efficient recovery networks and material circulation across member states. Using 14 years of cross-border waste recovery data from 2010 to 2023 across 27 EU countries, this study investigates the heterogeneous associations of several determinants of exports of notified waste for recovery (EWR) through the method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) to decompose location (median) and scale (dispersion) effects, alongside bootstrap quantile regression (BSQR) for robustness, the generalized method of moments (GMM) for persistence and endogeneity, and Granger causality tests for directional relationships. Our investigation identifies several policy factors associated with transboundary recovery participation and circular economy transition. The relationship also shows reverse Granger causality. AI innovation shows no significant associations with waste trade or the possibility of deployment gaps, but R&D intensity shows robust positive associations across all quantiles, with forward Granger causality supporting causal precedence. The recycling rate of municipal waste (RMW) has monotonically increasing associations in all quantiles and has bidirectional Granger causality, implying possible feedback mechanisms. These findings, put together, inform policymakers to consider market mechanisms, institutionalizing R&D investment, emphasizing infrastructure development, driving economic growth, and leveraging technological capabilities to support sustainable transboundary waste recovery networks and circular transition across the EU.