Abstract
Ensemble regional model simulations over the central US with 30-km resolution are analyzed to investigate the physical processes of projected precipitation changes in the mid-twenty-first century under greenhouse gas forcing. An atmospheric moisture balance is constructed, and changes in the diurnal cycle are evaluated. Wetter conditions over the central US in April and May occur most strongly in the afternoon and evening, supported primarily by moisture convergence by transient eddy activity, indicating enhanced daytime convection. In June, increased rainfall over the northern Great Plains is strongest from 0000 to 0600 LT. It is supported by positive changes in stationary meridional moisture convergence related to a strengthening of the GPLLJ accompanied by an intensification of the western extension of the North Atlantic subtropical high. In the Midwest, decreased rainfall is strongest at 1500 LT and 0000 LT. Both a suppression of daytime convection as well as changes in the zonal flow in the GPLLJ exit region are important. Future drying over the northern Great Plains in summer is triggered by weakened daytime convection, and persists throughout August and September when a deficit in soil moisture develops and land–atmosphere feedbacks become increasingly important.