Abstract
The consequences of climate change are often conceptualised in terms of the changing risks of natural disasters, or as reductions in future economic output. When understood in these terms, it is all too easy to believe that one might “get lucky”—that the floods won’t affect those of us who don’t live by the waterfront, and that the heatwaves won’t affect the salaries or job security of those of us who go to work in air conditioned offices. The consequences of climate change, serious though they may be, seem far away. Contrary to this perspective, we argue that changing risk profiles, even marginal or distant changes, are likely to strain the underlying fabric of societies, and thus have profound consequences for everyone. Even for individuals who are relatively insulated from the direct physical consequences of climate change, it may well be that there is little chance of “getting lucky.” This has important implications for how we perceive and assess the benefits of climate action. We therefore call for greater efforts to understand the system-wide social consequences of increasing disaster risks.