Emerging regional perspectives of global climate change scenarios: a systematic review

Abstract

Global climate change science-policy assessments have historically relied on emissions and mitigation scenarios, with relatively limited uptake in adaptation or vulnerability research. Reframing global climate scenarios can enhance their relevance in these fields. A systematic review of 155 studies involving regional scenario development reveals five key perspectives for regionalising the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) narratives. While top-down approaches largely dominate, multigenerational regional scenario analyses are emerging, where first-generation regional SSPs provide context for second-generation or further extensions. Participatory methods increasingly integrate bottom-up approaches, offering novel insights into cross-scale consistency. By positioning global scenarios as both boundary objects and boundary conditions, this study highlights the opportunity to expand towards more diverse regional scenarios, potentially broadening engagement with impact, adaptation, and vulnerability scholars beyond the Global North.

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