A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake

Abstract

We formulate a new conceptual model, named “ MT 2”, to describe global ocean heat uptake, as simulated by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced by increasing atmospheric CO $$_{2}$$ 2 , as a function of global-mean surface temperature change T and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC, M ). MT 2 has two routes whereby heat reaches the deep ocean. On the basis of circumstantial evidence, we hypothetically identify these routes as low- and high-latitude. In low latitudes, which dominate the global-mean energy balance, heat uptake is temperature-driven and described by the two-layer model, with global-mean T as the temperature change of the upper layer. In high latitudes, a proportion p (about 14%) of the forcing is taken up along isopycnals, mostly in the Southern Ocean, nearly like a passive tracer, and unrelated to T . Because the proportion p depends linearly on the AMOC strength in the unperturbed climate, we hypothesise that high-latitude heat uptake and the AMOC are both affected by some characteristic of the unperturbed global ocean state, possibly related to stratification. MT 2 can explain several relationships among AOGCM projections, some found in this work, others previously reported: $$\bullet $$ ∙ Ocean heat uptake efficiency correlates strongly with the AMOC. $$\bullet $$ ∙ Global ocean heat uptake is not correlated with the AMOC. $$\bullet $$ ∙ Transient climate response (TCR) is anticorrelated with the AMOC. $$\bullet $$ ∙ T projected for the late twenty-first century under high-forcing scenarios correlates more strongly with the effective climate sensitivity than with the TCR.

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