How Vulnerable Are Plants to Land‐Use and Climate Changes? Comparing Current and Future Distributions at the Regional Scale According to Native and Red List Statuses

Abstract

Aim Future species distributions were modelled to assess the distributional changes of 1692 plant species according to several scenarios. Species vulnerability was calculated according to their red list and native statuses using a new index to better understand the most vulnerable groups of species to future conditions and improve conservation actions. Location Greater Geneva region between France and Switzerland. Time Period From present to 2050. Major Taxa Studied A total of 1692 species of plants from all major groups. Methods Two different species distribution models were created to combine the effect of climate change at the continental scale and land‐use changes at the regional scale in 2050. Two scenarios of climate change were used (optimistic and pessimistic) and one business‐as‐usual land‐use–land‐cover scenario. Current and future distributions were compared using six spatial indicators combined to create a new vulnerability index to global changes. Results More than one‐third of all species assessed showed at least a moderate vulnerability, and more than 10% showed a high vulnerability to global changes, mostly composed of native species. Most exotic species showed moderate benefits to global changes, and one‐third were associated with high benefits. Pessimistic scenarios of climate change exacerbated the trends identified under optimistic scenarios and were associated with higher vulnerability for native species and higher benefits for exotic ones. No clear pattern was found when comparing species vulnerability according to their red list status, questioning its ability to preserve species in the long term. Main Conclusions Native species are more vulnerable to global changes, while exotic species benefit from them. Climate is the main driver of future distributional changes in the study area. Current levels of threat fail to inform us of species vulnerability to future conditions, questioning their relevance and supporting the assessments of similar studies to identify the most vulnerable species.

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