Abstract
Models project that climate change is increasing the frequency of severe storm events such as hurricanes. Hurricanes are an important driver of ecosystem structure and function in tropical coastal and island regions and thus impact tropical forest carbon (C) cycling. We used the DayCent model to explore the effects of increased hurricane frequency on humid tropical forest C stocks and fluxes at decadal and centennial timescales. The model was parameterized with empirical data from the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico. The DayCent model replicated the well-documented cyclical pattern of forest biomass fluctuations in hurricane-impacted forests such as the LEF. At the historical hurricane frequency (60 years), the dynamic steady state mean forest biomass was 80.9 ± 0.8 Mg C/ha during the 500-year study period. Increasing hurricane frequency to 30 and 10 years did not significantly affect net primary productivity but resulted in a significant decrease in mean forest biomass to 61.1 ± 0.6 and 33.2 ± 0.2 Mg C/ha, respectively ( p < 0.001). Hurricane events at all intervals had a positive effect on soil C stocks, although the magnitude and rate of change of soil C varied with hurricane frequency. However, the gain in soil C stocks was insufficient to offset the larger losses from aboveground biomass C over the time period. Heterotrophic respiration increased with hurricane frequency by 1.6 to 4.8%. Overall, we found that an increasing frequency of tropical hurricanes led to a decrease in net ecosystem production by − 0.2 ± 0.08 Mg C/ha/y to − 0.4 ± 0.04 Mg C/ha/y for 30–10-year hurricane intervals, respectively, significantly increasing the C source strength of this forest. These results demonstrate how changes in hurricane frequency can have major implications for the tropical forest C cycle and limit the potential for this ecosystem to serve as a net C sink.