Participatory Scenario Design to Support Ex-ante Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Assessments in Four European Agricultural Case Studies

Abstract

Anticipating future socioeconomic conditions through scenarios supports effective land-use planning and management that safeguards biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). This study introduces a novel participatory scenario development protocol to design consistent, nested regional scenarios tailored for BES assessments of agricultural land-use. The protocol is applied in four European case studies (subnational regions in Austria, Estonia, Germany, and Switzerland), combining regional narratives with quantitative developments aligned with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for European agri-food systems for 2050 (Eur-Agri-SSPs). Two innovative scenario components are introduced: (i) land-use and management practices and (ii) land-use-biodiversity actions, including private and public instruments. These components are typically neglected in larger-scale scenario applications. Despite shared European boundary conditions from the Eur-Agri-SSPs, the regional scenarios exhibit substantial variation, driven by current land-use structures and stakeholder input. Scenario elements, shaped by existing funding schemes and socioeconomic contexts, vary substantially across scenarios and regions. Examples include the share of organic farms and the level of payments for agri-environment-climate measures. In Münsterland (Germany) and Lääne County (Estonia), current agri-environment payments are significantly lower than in Schwarzbubenland (Switzerland) or the Wienerwald (Austria), and this is reflected in the SSP1 (“..sustainable paths”) and SSP2 (“..established paths”) scenarios. This study demonstrates the value of regional extensions of the SSP framework, grounded in participatory processes, to support context-specific BES assessments. It contributes to scenario research by presenting key challenges and recommendations for nested participatory scenario design and by bridging the gap between global and continental frameworks and subnational implementation needs.

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