Interaction between coastal socioeconomic and environmental activities for integrated management: case study East Mediterranean (Greece, Cyprus, and Montenegro)

Abstract

The coastal environment faces increasing pressures from human activities but are also vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. This study aims to assess and compare the vulnerability and erosion of highly touristic coastlines in three regions of the Eastern Mediterranean (Cyprus, Greece (Lesvos Island), and Montenegro). The coastal risk assessment was analyzed using the Coastal Vulnerability Index, Visitation and Tourism parameter, and the Coastal Erosion Index. The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model evaluates up to seven bio-geo-physical components, establishing a vulnerability index, while the InVEST Visitation Recreation and Tourism model estimates tourist visitation. The XBeach model simulates the nearshore processes under time-varying storm conditions that contain a time-dependent wave action balance solver. Coastal vulnerability percentages reveal high and very high vulnerability for Cyprus (56%), Lesvos (40%), and Montenegro (34%), due to different local conditions. The InVEST Visitation Recreation and Tourism model highlights Molyvos and Petra (Lesvos), Kotor and Budva (Montenegro), and Paphos and Limassol (Cyprus) as the most tourist destinations in the study zones. According to the results of Coastal Erosion, Coral Bay’s beach appears more vulnerable, with shoreline retreat exceeding 14 m for the selected climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). In contrast, Budva’s beach shows a retreat of more than 12 m for RCP 4.5 and 16 m for RCP 8.5 scenario. Notably, Petra’s beach exhibits the least retreat, with higher values reaching 4 m for RCP 4.5 and 13 m for the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings contribute to suggesting coastal management strategies for shoreline conservation and tourism sustainability.

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