Abstract
Challenges to global food security, such as rising food demand and food prices in developing countries, are a growing concern. Building food system resilience is becoming recognised as an important strategy to mitigate these challenges. However, despite numerous studies on food system resilience and food price volatility, there is no consensus on how to measure it. Therefore, this study seeks to enhance the measurement of food system resilience and investigate its role in stabilising food prices. Specifically, this work develops a Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based provincial-level Food System Resilience Index (FSRI) using provincial panel data from 2018 to 2022 across 36 indicators in Indonesia. This work then uses a spatial panel model for analysing the relationship between food system resilience and price volatility. Our results show that Java has a stronger food system resilience than other Indonesian islands due to its large production capacity and distribution accessibility, leading to more stable food prices. Statistical analysis further suggests that higher resilience levels are associated with reduced food price volatility within a province and may stabilise prices in neighbouring provinces. Our results suggest that policymakers could strengthen food system resilience in less resilient areas by improving food production capacity and distribution networks to reduce food price volatility and enhance overall food price stability across interconnected provinces.