Expert-guided multicriteria decision-making for mitigating land subsidence caused by groundwater overexploitation

Abstract

Land subsidence poses significant problems in regions facing water management challenges, primarily resulting from unsustainable groundwater abstraction that causes significant drops in piezometric levels. Recognizing the urgent need for effective mitigation measures against land subsidence, this study developed a multicriteria decision-making model on the basis of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate ten mitigation alternatives. Expert opinions were gathered through structured surveys in four Mediterranean areas: the coastal aquifer of Comacchio (Italy), the Alto Guadalentín aquifer (Spain), the Sarıgöl-Alaşehir aquifer in the Gediz River Basin (Türkiye), and the Azraq Wetland Reserve (Jordan). Quantitatively, results of the AHP analysis consistently ranked two alternatives (enhancing water use efficiency and strengthening legal control over groundwater abstraction) as the most preferred to mitigate land subsidence, with statistical tests (Friedman test and Dunn’s post-hoc test) confirming the robustness of these results. The innovative contribution of this work lies in its integration of diverse expert perspectives into a comprehensive, transferable decision-making tool that goes beyond previous approaches by combining technical, economic, environmental, and social dimensions. The results provide valuable, targeted guidance for policymakers and planners, offering sustainable strategies that can be adapted to different regional contexts.

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