Multi‐endmember mixing and primary productivity drive carbonate system variability on a highly heterogeneous, shallow productive bank

Abstract

This study presents the first high‐resolution spatial analysis of carbonate chemistry on Georges Bank, a highly productive shallow bank located at the southeastern edge of the Gulf of Maine. Despite numerous studies on the hydrography, nutrient chemistry, and biology, regional carbonate chemistry remains unexplored, in particular for near‐bottom conditions. Observations from cruises in May and October 2021 were used to identify multi‐endmember mixing, and a Bayesian mixing model was applied to temperature and salinity to separate water mass mixing from non‐conservative drivers such as net community production, air–sea exchange, and other biogeochemical processes/errors. Major findings from this study indicate that carbonate chemistry is highly heterogeneous and driven by multi‐endmember mixing, although biological production and respiration were notable while air–sea CO 2 exchange was minimal. Five water masses with unique carbonate chemistry were observed that varied by season and with depth, showing complexity that is uncommon in other regions along the US Atlantic coast. In both cruises, a Warm Slope Water intrusion was identified at depth that contained a strong signal of CaCO 3 dissolution during the October cruise, observed in situ for the first time in this region. Under a high emissions scenario, our results suggest that much of the bank's bottom waters may become undersaturated with respect to aragonite by 2100. Together, these findings suggest that the in situ dissolution observed may only worsen with future ocean acidification, with potentially significant implications for ecologically and economically important shellfish species on Georges Bank.

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