Abstract
A bstract We used simulation to investigate robust designs and analyses for detecting trends from population surveys of Alaska harbor seals. We employed an operating model approach, creating simulated harbor seal population dynamics and haul‐out behavior that incorporated factors thought to potentially affect the performance of aerial surveys. The factors included the number of years, the number of haul‐out sites in an area, the number and timing of surveys within a year, known and unknown covariates affecting haul‐out behavior, substrate effects, movement among substrates, and variability in survey and population parameters. We found estimates of population trend were robust to the majority of potentially confounding factors, and that adjusting counts for the effects of covariates was both possible and beneficial. The use of mean or maximum counts by site without covariate correction can lead to substantial bias and low power in trend determination. For covariate‐corrected trend estimates, there was minimal bias and loss of accuracy was negligible when surveys were conducted 20 d before or after peak haul‐out attendance, survey date became progressively earlier across years, and peak attendance fluctuated across years. Trend estimates were severely biased when the effect of an unknown covariate resulted in a long‐term trend in the fraction of the population hauled out. A key factor governing the robustness and power of harbor seal population surveys is intersite variability in trend. This factor is well understood for sites within the Prince William Sound and Kodiak trend routes for which at least 10 consecutive annual surveys have been conducted, but additional annual counts are needed for other areas. The operating model approach proved to be an effective means of evaluating these surveys and should be used to evaluate other marine mammal survey designs.