Abstract
Development and implementation of effective protected area management to reduce deforestation depend in part on identifying factors contributing to forest loss and areas at risk of conversion, but standard land‐use‐change modeling may not fully capture contextual factors that are not easily quantified. To better understand deforestation and agricultural expansion in Amazonian protected areas, we combined quantitative land‐use‐change modeling with qualitative discourse analysis in a case study of Brazil's Jamanxim National Forest. We modeled land‐use change from 2008 to 2018 and projected deforestation through 2028. We used variables identified in a review of studies that modeled land‐use change in the Amazon (e.g., variables related to agricultural suitability and economic accessibility) and from a critical discourse analysis that examined documents produced by different actors (e.g., government agencies and conservation nonprofit organizations) at various spatial scales. As measured by analysis of variance, McFadden's adjusted pseudo R 2 , and quantity and allocation disagreement, we found that including variables in the model identified as important to deforestation dynamics through the qualitative discourse analysis (e.g., the proportion of unallocated public land, distance to proposed infrastructure developments, and density of recent fires) alongside more traditional variables (e.g., elevation, distance to roads, and protection status) improved the predictive ability of these models. Models that included discourse analysis variables and traditional variables explained up to 19.3% more of the observed variation in deforestation probability than a model that included only traditional variables and 4.1% more variation than a model with only discourse analysis variables. Our approach of integrating qualitative and quantitative methods in land‐use‐change modeling provides a framework for future interdisciplinary work in land‐use change.