Abstract
In the United States, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle collection rates have not increased in a decade. Recycling rates remain abysmal while industry commitments and policy targets escalate the demand for recycled plastics. We investigate the PET bottle recycling system, where collection is a critical bottleneck and recycled PET supply is not meeting the expected demand. We characterize demand for recycled PET (R‐PET), analyze scenarios of expanding deposit return systems (DRS), and quantify cost barriers to improving PET bottle recycling. We find that a nation‐wide DRS can increase PET bottle recycling rates from 24% to 82%, supplying approximately 2700 kt of recycled PET annually. With stability in demand, we estimate that this PET bottle recycling system can achieve 65% bottle‐to‐bottle circularity, at a net cost of 360 USD/tonne of PET recycled. We also discuss environmental impacts, stakeholder implications, producer responsibility, and complimentary policies toward an efficient and effective recycling system.