An expert‐based system to predict population survival rate from health data

Abstract

Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach, but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from 7 bottlenose dolphin ( Tursiops trun catus) populations in the southeastern United States to develop a method for estimating survival probability based on a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. We used logistic regression to implement the veterinary expert system for outcome prediction (VESOP) within a Bayesian analysis framework. We fitted parameters with records from 5 of the sites that had a robust network of responders to marine mammal strandings and frequent photographic identification surveys that documented definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture–mark–recapture (CMR) analyses of photographic identification data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. The VESOP analyses showed that multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1‐ and 2‐year individual survival. The highest mortality risk 1 year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase (odds ratio [OR] = 10.2 [95% CI: 3.41–26.8]), whereas 2‐year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (OR = 9.60 [95% CI: 3.88–22.4]); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population‐level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1‐year Pearson's r = 0.99, p = 1.52 × 10 –5 ; 2‐year r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Although our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it can be used to detect chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.

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