Abstract
Approximately one quarter of the earth's population directly harvests natural resources to meet their daily needs. These individuals are disproportionately required to alter their behaviors in response to increasing climatic variability and global biodiversity loss. Much of the ever‐ambitious global conservation agenda relies on the voluntary uptake of conservation behaviors in such populations. Thus, it is critical to understand how such individuals perceive environmental change and use conservation practices as a tool to protect their well‐being. We developed a participatory mapping activity to elicit spatially explicit perceptions of forest change and its drivers across 43 mangrove‐dependent communities in Pemba, Tanzania. We administered this activity along with a questionnaire regarding conservation preferences and behaviors to 423 individuals across those 43 communities. We analyzed these data with a set of Bayesian hierarchical statistical models. Perceived cover loss in 50% of a community's mangrove area drove individuals to decrease proposed limits on fuelwood bundles from 2.74 (forest perceived as intact) to 2.37 if participants believed resultant gains in mangrove cover would not be stolen by outsiders. Conversely, individuals who believed their community mangrove forests were at high risk of theft loosened their proposed harvest limits from 1.26 to 2.75 bundles of fuelwood in response to the same perceived forest decline. High rates of intergroup competition and mangrove loss were thus driving a self‐reinforcing increase in unsustainable harvesting preferences in community forests in this system. This finding demonstrates a mechanism by which increasing environmental decline may cause communities to forgo conservation practices, rather than adopt them, as is often assumed in much community‐based conservation planning. However, we also found that when effective boundaries were present, individuals were willing to limit their own harvests to stem such perceived decline.