Development of a new expendable probe for the study of pelagic ecosystems from voluntary observing ships - M. Marcelli; A. Di Maio; D. Donis; U. Mainardi; G. M. R. Manzella (Ocean Science, 2007)
Physical and biological processes of the marine ecosystem have a high spatial and temporal variability, whose study is possible only through high resolution and synoptic observations. The Temperature and Fluorescence Launchable Probe was charted in order to answer to the claim of a cost effective temperature and fluorescence expendable profiler, to be used in ships of opportunity. The development of the expendable fluorometer has followed similar concepts of the XBT (a wire conducting the signal to a computer card), but differently from the latter it was developed with an electronic system which can be improved and adapted to several variables measure channels. To reach the aim of a low-cost probe, were utilized commercial components: a glass bulb temperature resistor for the temperature measurement, blue LEDs, a photodiode and available selective glass filters, for the fluorescence measurement. The measurement principle employed to detect phytoplankton's biomass is the active fluorescence. This method is an in vivo chlorophyll estimation, that can get the immediate biophysical reaction of phytoplankton inside the aquatic environment; it is a non-disruptive method which gives real time estimation and avoids the implicit errors due to the manipulation of samples. The possibility of using a continuous profiling probe, with an active fluorescence measurement, is very important in real time phytoplankton's study; it is the best way to follow the variability of sea productivity. In fact, because of the high time and space variability of phytoplankton, due to its capability to answer in a relatively short time to ecological variations in its environment and because of its characteristic patchiness, there isn't a precise quantitative estimation of the biomass present in the Mediterranean Sea.

Observing the Mediterranean Sea from space: 21 years of Pathfinder-AVHRR sea surface temperatures (1985 to 2005): re-analysis and validation - S. Marullo; B. Buongiorno Nardelli; M. Guarracino; R. Santoleri (Ocean Science, 2007)
The time series of satellite infrared AVHRR data from 1985 to 2005 has been used to produce a daily series of optimally interpolated SST maps over the regular grid of the operational MFSTEP OGCM model of the Mediterranean basin. A complete validation of this OISST (Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature) product with in situ measurements has been performed in order to exclude any possibility of spurious trends due to instrumental calibration errors/shifts or algorithms malfunctioning related to local geophysical factors. The validation showed that satellite OISST is able to reproduce in situ measurements with a mean bias of less than 0.1 K and RMSE of about 0.5 K and that errors do not drift with time or with the percent interpolation error.

Scaling aspects of the sea-ice-drift dynamics and pack fracture - A. Chmel; V. N. Smirnov; L. V. Panov (Ocean Science, 2007)
A study of the sea-ice dynamics in the periods of time prior to and during the cycles of basin-wide fragmentation of the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is presented. The fractal geometry of the ice-sheets limited by leads and ridges was assessed using the satellite images, while the data on the correlated sea-ice motion were obtained in the research stations "North Pole 32" and "North Pole 33" established on the ice pack. The revealed decrease of the fractal dimension as a result of large-scale fragmentation is consistent with the localization of the fracture process (leads propagation). At the same time, the scaling properties of the distribution of amplitudes of ice-fields accelerations were insensitive to the event of sea-ice fragmentation. The temporal distribution of the accelerations was scale-invariant during "quiet" periods of sea-ice drift but disordered in the period of mechanical perturbation. The period of decorrelated (in time) ice-field motion during the important fracture event was interpreted as an inter-level transition in the hierarchic dynamical system. The mechanism of the long-range correlations in the sea-ice cover, including the fracture process, is suggested to be in relation with the self-organized oscillation dynamics inherent in the ice pack.

Effects of the 2003 European heatwave on the Central Mediterranean Sea: surface fluxes and the dynamical response - A. Olita; R. Sorgente; S. Natale; S. Gaberšek; A. Ribotti; A. Bonanno; B. Patti (Ocean Science, 2007)
The effects of the 2003 European heatwave on the sea surface layer of the Central Mediterranean were studied using a regional 3-D ocean model. The model was used to simulate the period 2000 to 2004 and its performance was validated using remotely-sensed and in situ data. Analysis of the results focused on changes in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and on changes to the surface and sub-surface current field. This permitted us to identify and quantify the anomalies of atmospheric and sea surface parameters that accompanied the heatwave. The dominant annual cycle in each variable was first removed and a wavelet analysis then used to locate anomalies in the time-frequency domain. We found that the excess heating affecting the sea surface in the summer of 2003 was related to a significant increase in air temperature, a decrease in wind stress and reduction of all components of the upward heat flux. The monthly averages of the model SST were found to be in good agreement with remotely-sensed data during the period studied, although the ocean model tended to underestimate extreme events. The spatial distribution of SST anomalies as well as their time-frequency location was similar for both the remotely-sensed and model temperatures. We also found, on the basis of the period of the observed anomaly, that the event was not limited to the few summer months of 2003 but was part of a longer phenomenon. Both the model results and experimental data suggest the anomalous heating mainly affected the top 15 m of ocean and was associated with strong surface stratification and low mixing. The skill of the model to reproduce the sub-surface hydrographic features during the heatwave was checked by comparison with temperature and salinity measurements. This showed that the model was generally in good agreement with observations. The model and observations showed that the anomalous warming also modified the currents in the region, most noticeably the Atlantic Ionian Stream (AIS) and the Atlantic Tunisian Current (ATC). The AIS was reduced in intensity and showed less meandering, mainly due to the reduced density gradient and low winds, while the ATC was enhanced in strength, the two currents appearing to modulate each other in order to conserve the total transport of Modified Atlantic Water.

Improved near real time surface wind resolution over the Mediterranean Sea - A. Bentamy; H.-L. Ayina; P. Queffeulou; D. Croize-Fillon; V. Kerbaol (Ocean Science, 2007)
Several scientific programs, including the Mediterranean Forecasting System Toward Environmental Predictions (MFSTEP project), request high space and time resolutions of surface wind speed and direction. The purpose of this paper is to focus on surface wind improvements over the global Mediterranean Sea, based on the blending near real time remotely sensed wind observations and ECMWF wind analysis. Ocean surface wind observations are retrieved from QuikSCAT scatterometer and from SSM/I radiometers available at near real time at Météo-France. Using synchronous satellite data, the number of remotely sensed data available for each analysis epoch (00:00 h; 06:00 h; 12:00 h; 18:00 h) is not uniformly distributed as a function of space and time. On average two satellite wind observations are available for each analysis time period. The analysis is performed by optimum interpolation (OI) based on the kriging approach. The needed covariance matrixes are estimated from the satellite wind speed, zonal and meridional component observations. The quality of the 6-hourly resulting blended wind fields on 0.25° grid are investigated trough comparisons with the remotely sensed observations as well as with moored buoy wind averaged wind estimates. The blended wind data and remotely wind observations, occurring within 3 h and 0.25° from the analysis estimates, compare well over the global basin as well as over the sub-basins. The correlation coefficients exceed 0.95 while the rms difference values are less than 0.30 m/s. Using measurements from moored buoys, the high-resolution wind fields are found to have similar accuracy as satellite wind retrievals. Blended wind estimates exhibit better comparisons with buoy moored in open sea than near shore.

The improvements of the ships of opportunity program in MFS-TEP - G. M. R. Manzella; F. Reseghetti; G. Coppini; M. Borghini; A. Cruzado; C. Galli; I. Gertman; T. Gervais; D. Hayes; C. Millot; A. Murashkovsky; E. Özsoy; et al. (Ocean Science, 2007)
The Ships Of Opportunity Program in the Mediterranean Sea was established at the end of 1999, in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System – Pilot Project (MFS-PP). Many improvements have been made in data collection, transmission and management. Calibration of selected XBTs and a comparison of XBTs vs. CTDs during some research cruises have assured the quality of the data. Transmission now allows receiving data in full resolution by using GSM or satellite telecommunication services; management is offering access to high quality data and view services. The effects of technological and methodological improvements in the observing system are assessed in terms of capability to represent the most important circulation features. The improved methodologies have been tested during the Mediterranean Forecasting System – Toward Environmental Prediction (MFS-TEP) – Targeted Operational Period (MFS-TOP), lasting from September 2004 to February 2005. In spite of the short period of measurements, several important aspects of the Mediterranean Sea circulation have been verified, such as eddies and gyres in the various sub-basins, and dense water formation processes in some of them (vertical homogeneous profiles of about 13°C down to ~800 m in the Provençal, and of about 14.9°C down to ~300 m in the Levantine have allowed defining an index of dense water formation).

The M3A multi-sensor buoy network of the Mediterranean Sea - K. Nittis; C. Tziavos; R. Bozzano; V. Cardin; Y. Thanos; G. Petihakis; M. E. Schiano; F. Zanon (Ocean Science, 2007)
A network of three multi-sensor timeseries stations able to deliver real time physical and biochemical observations of the upper thermocline has been developed for the needs of the Mediterranean Forecasting System during the MFSTEP project. They follow the experience of the prototype M3A system that was developed during the MFSPP project and has been tested during a pilot pre-operational period of 22 months (2000–2001). The systems integrate sensors for physical (temperature, salinity, turbidity, current speed and direction) as well as optical and chemical observations (dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, PAR, nitrate). The south Aegean system (E1-M3A) follows a modular design using independent mooring lines and collects biochemical data in the upper 100 m and physical data in the upper 500 m of the water column. The south Adriatic buoy system (E2-M3A) uses similar instrumentation but on a single mooring line and also tests a new method of pumping water samples from relatively deep layers, performing analysis in the protected "dry" environment of the buoy interior. The Ligurian Sea system (W1-M3A) is an ideal platform for air-sea interaction processes since it hosts a large number of meteorological sensors while its ocean instrumentation, with real time transmission capabilities, is confined in the upper 50 m layer. Despite their different architecture, the three systems have common sampling strategy, quality control and data management procedures. The network operates in the Mediterranean Sea since autumn 2004 collecting timeseries data for calibration and validation of the forecasting system as well for process studies of regional dynamics.

Towards measuring the meridional overturning circulation from space - D. Cromwell; A. G. P. Shaw; P. Challenor; R. E. Houseago-Stokes; R. Tokmakian (Ocean Science, 2007)
We present a step towards measuring the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), i.e. the full-depth water mass transport, in the North Atlantic using satellite data. Using the Parallel Ocean Climate Model, we simulate satellite observations of ocean bottom pressure and sea surface height (SSH) over the 20-year period from 1979–1998, and use a linear model to estimate the MOC. As much as 93.5% of the variability in the smoothed transport is thereby explained. This increases to 98% when SSH and bottom pressure are first smoothed. We present initial studies of predicting the time evolution of the MOC, with promising results. It should be stressed that this is an initial step only, and that to produce an actual working system for measuring the MOC from space would require considerable future work.

Simulations of ARGO profilers and of surface floating objects: applications in MFSTEP - C. Pizzigalli; V. Rupolo (Ocean Science, 2007)
In this work we describe part of the activities performed in the MFSTEP project by means of numerical simulations of ARGO profilers and surface floating objects. Simulations of ARGO floats were used to define the optimal time cycling in order to maximize independent observations of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity and to minimize the error on the estimate of the velocity at the parking depth of the profilers. Instead, the Mediterranean Forecasting System archive of Eulerian velocity field from 2000 to 2004 was used to build a related surface Lagrangian archive, systematically integrating numerical particles released and constrained to drift at surface. Here we use such Lagrangian archive to study the interannual variability of the surface Lagrangian transport in two key areas of the Western Mediterranean, also introducing an exponential decay in the particles concentration.

An observing system for the collection of fishery and oceanographic data - P. Falco; A. Belardinelli; A. Santojanni; N. Cingolani; A. Russo; E. Arneri (Ocean Science, 2007)
Fishery Observing System (FOS) was developed as a first and basic step towards fish stock abundance nowcasting/forecasting within the framework of the EU research program Mediterranean Forecasting System: Toward an Environmental Prediction (MFSTEP). The study of the relationship between abundance and environmental parameters also represents a crucial point towards forecasting. Eight fishing vessels were progressively equipped with FOS instrumentation to collect fishery and oceanographic data. The vessels belonged to different harbours of the Central and Northern Adriatic Sea. For this pilot application, anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, L.) was chosen as the target species. Geo-referenced catch data, associated with in-situ temperature and depth, were the FOS products but other parameters were associated with catch data as well. MFSTEP numerical circulation models provide many of these data. In particular, salinity was extracted from re-analysis data of numerical circulation models. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll were also used as independent variables. Catch and effort data were used to estimate an abundance index (CPUE – Catch per Unit of Effort). Considering that catch records were gathered by different fishing vessels with different technical characteristics and operating on different fish densities, a standardized value of CPUE was calculated. A spatial and temporal average CPUE map was obtained together with a monthly mean time series in order to characterise the variability of anchovy abundance during the period of observation (October 2003–August 2005). In order to study the relationship between abundance and oceanographic parameters, Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were used. Preliminary results revealed a complex scenario: the southern sector of the domain is characterised by a stronger relationship than the central and northern sector where the interactions between the environment and the anchovy distribution are hidden by a higher percentage of variability within the system which is still unexplained. GAM analysis showed that increasing the number of explanatory variables also increased the portion of variance explained by the model. Data exchange and interdisciplinary efforts will therefore be crucial for the success of this research activity.

Tidal modulation of two-layer hydraulic exchange flows - L. M. Frankcombe; A. McC. Hogg (Ocean Science, 2007)
Time-dependent, two layer hydraulic exchange flow is studied using an idealised shallow water model. It is found that barotropic time-dependent perturbations, representing tidal forcing, increase the baroclinic exchange flux above the steady hydraulic limit, with flux increasing monotonically with tidal amplitude (measured either by height or flux amplitude over a tidal period). Exchange flux also depends on the non-dimensional tidal period, γ, which was introduced by by Helfrich (1995). When tidal amplitude is characterised by the barotropic flux amplitude, exchange flux is a monotonic function of γ as predicted by Helfrich (1995). However, the relationship between the (imposed) free surface amplitude and flux amplitude is complicated by reflections within the channel and by the baroclinic response of the two layer system, leading to a non-monotonic relationship between the height amplitude and γ.

Development of an automatic multiple launcher for expendable probes - G. Zappalà; F. Reseghetti; G. M. R. Manzella (Ocean Science, 2007)
A main goal of a Ship Of Opportunity Programme (SOOP) is the provision of temperature profiles in near real time. The use of commercial ships and expandable probes allows the reduction of costs, in comparison with research ship cruises. A major cost effectiveness is achieved using an automated multiple launcher, requiring minimum personnel effort. A multiple launcher, developed in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System – Toward Environmental Prediction Project (MFSTEP), allows for a sequential collection of eight temperature profiles, using a software-programmable sampling strategy. The data acquisition system can be remotely controlled in every functionality, and data can be transmitted by GSM-GPRS or satellite telephone systems.

Physical response of the coastal ocean to Hurricane Isabel near landfall - F. M. Bingham (Ocean Science, 2007)
Hurricane Isabel made landfall near Drum Inlet, North Carolina on 18 September 2003. In nearby Onslow Bay an array of 5 moorings captured the response of the coastal ocean to the passage of the storm by measuring currents, surface waves, bottom pressure, temperature and salinity. Temperatures across the continental shelf decreased by 1–3°C, consistent with a surface heat flux estimate of 750 W/m2. Salinity decreased at most mooring locations. A calculation at one of the moorings estimates rainfall of 11 cm and a net addition of fresh water at the surface of 8 cm. The low-pass current field shows a shelf-wide movement of water, first to the southwest, with an abrupt reversal to the northeast along the shelf after landfall. Close analysis of this reversal shows it to be a disturbance propagating offshore at a speed somewhat less than the local shallow water wave speed. The high-pass current field at one of the moorings shows a significant increase in kinetic energy at periods between 10 min and 2 h during the approach of the storm. This high-pass flow is isotropic and has a short (

Daily oceanographic analyses by Mediterranean Forecasting System at the basin scale - S. Dobricic; N. Pinardi; M. Adani; M. Tonani; C. Fratianni; A. Bonazzi; V. Fernandez (Ocean Science, 2007)
This study presents the upgrade of the Optimal Interpolation scheme used in the basin scale assimilation scheme of the Mediterranean Forecasting System. The modifications include a daily analysis cycle, the assimilation of ARGO float profiles, the implementation of the geostrophic balance in the background error covariance matrix and the initialisation of the analyses. A series of numerical experiments showed that each modification had a positive impact on the accuracy of the analyses: The daily cycle improved the representation of the processes with the temporal variability shorter than a week, the assimilation of ARGO floats profiles significantly improved the salinity analyses quality, the geostrophically balanced background error covariances improved the accuracy of the surface elevation analyses, and the initialisation removed the barotropic adjustment in the forecast first time steps starting from the analysis.

M3A system (2000–2005) – operation and maintenance - G. Petihakis; P. Drakopoulos; C. Nittis; V. Zervakis; C. Christodoulou; C. Tziavos (Ocean Science, 2007)
During the pilot phase of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFSPP) (2000 2003), a prototype observing system (Mediterranean Moored Multi-sensor Array – M3A) was designed, developed and operated in the Cretan Sea for continuous oceanographic measurements in real time. The main problems encountered were associated with biofouling, underwater and aerial communication and with the design of the surface buoy. In the second phase of the MFS project named Mediterranean Forecasting System Towards Environmental Predictions (MFSTEP) (2003–2005), the aim was to solve those problems and to consolidate the M3A. For the minimisation of biofouling a pilot field study was performed and the techniques of bromine solution and copper shielding were evaluated. Additionally, the oligotrophy of the Aegean Sea dictated the need to ignore factory calibrations and to perform site-specific laboratory calibrations of the sensors. This procedure was proved necessary and produced calibration coefficients that gave results comparable to the measurements obtained with the laboratory analysis method. During the approximately five years of operation, there were 13 scheduled and 15 emergency visits, with a total duration of 65 days. The acquired experience through the maintenance program proved that the continuous observation of such a very important system with a relative low cost is feasible.

Three decades of research on the greater Agulhas Current - J. R. E. Lutjeharms (Ocean Science, 2007)
The greater Agulhas Current has been shown to be a key link in the global thermohaline circulation and an increased understanding of this current system is therefore of more than just local interest. Knowledge on the Agulhas Current system has in fact increased enormously over the past 30 years. This review covers some aspects of what has been learnt on the northern and the southern parts of the Agulhas Current proper and their influence on the waters and circulation of the adjoining continental shelf. It also discusses the Natal Pulse and new information that has been gained on how it is triggered and what influence it has. It deals with the Agulhas retroflection, the shedding of Agulhas rings and the movement and characteristics of these rings that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation of the global ocean. The Agulhas Return Current forms part of the final outflow of the system and current knowledge on that current is appraised. The sources of the Agulhas Current have been a controversial subject for many years and this dispute continues. This is described and discussed, based on what information has been gained from research over the past three decades. Building on what is currently known, some suggestions are given on the most important remaining knowledge gaps and how these could most efficaciously be filled.

Structure of phytoplankton (Continuous Plankton Recorder and SeaWiFS) and impact of climate in the Northwest Atlantic Shelves - S. C. Leterme; R. D. Pingree (Ocean Science, 2007)
All marine organisms are affected to some extent by the movement and thermal properties of oceanic currents. However phytoplankton, because of its small size is most directly coupled to the physical environment. The intense hydrodynamic activity observed in the Northwest Atlantic Shelves Province makes this region especially intriguing from the point of view of physical-biological interactions. In the present work, remote sensed data of Sea Surface Height (SSH) anomalies, Sea-surface chlorophyll a concentrations (SeaWiFS), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are used to complement the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey that continuously sampled a route between Norfolk (Virginia, USA; 39° N, 71° W) and Argentia (Newfoundland; 47° N, 54° W) over the period 1995–1998. Over this period, we examined physical structures (i.e. SST and SSH) and climatic forcing associated with space-time phytoplankton structure. Along this route, the phytoplankton structures were mainly impacted by the changes in surface flow along the Scotian Shelf rather than significantly influenced by the mesoscale features of the Gulf Stream. These changes in water mass circulation caused a drop in temperature and salinity along the Scotian Shelf that induced changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance.

Modelling the cohesive sediment transport in the marine environment: the case of Thermaikos Gulf - Y. N. Krestenitis; K. D. Kombiadou; Y. G. Savvidis (Ocean Science, 2007)
The transport of fine-grained sediments in the marine environment entails risks of pollutant intrusions from substances absorbed onto the cohesive flocks' surface, gradually released to the aquatic field. These substances include nutrients such as nitrate, phosphate and silicate compounds from drainage from fertilization of adjacent cultivated areas that enter the coastal areas through rivers and streams, or trace metals as remainders from urban and industrial activities. As a consequence, knowledge on the motion and distribution of sediment particles coming from a given pollutant source is expected to provide the 'bulk' information on pollutant distribution, necessary for determining the region of influence of the source and to estimate probable trophic levels of the seawater and potential environmental risks. In that aim a numerical model has been developed to predict the fate of the sediments introduced to the marine environment from different pollution sources, such as river outflows, erosion of the seabed, aeolian transported material and drainage systems. The proposed three-dimensional mathematical model is based on the particle tracking method, according to which matter concentration is expressed by particles, each representing a particular amount of sedimentary mass, passively advected and dispersed by the currents. The processes affecting characteristics and propagation of sedimentary material in the marine environment, incorporated in the parameterization, apart from advection and dispersion, include cohesive sediment and near-bed processes. The movement of the particles along with variations in sedimentary characteristics and state, carried by each particle as personal information, are traced with time. Specifically, concerning transport processes, the local seawater velocity and the particle's settling control advection, whereas the random Brownian motion due to turbulence simulates turbulent diffusion. The vertical stratification of the water-column is taken into consideration by appropriate damping of the vertical diffusion term. Variations in cohesive sediment properties during the abidance in the aquatic environment include coagulation and flock break-up processes, quantification of the effects of ambient density to the density of the cohesive aggregate and the associated alterations to the falling speed of the particle. In the vicinity of the seabed, particles may deposit and gradually consolidate with time, the particles remain settled onto the bed, re-enter the flow at a later temporal point or may enter the water column for the first time, originating from the erosion of the bed. The occurrence of each of the aforementioned near-bed processes is defined according to the prevailing benthic shear stress conditions. The mathematical model has been applied to the Thermaikos Gulf, an area of high environmental and socioeconomic importance but also a region of significant pollutant forcing from various anthropogenic activities taking place in the adjoining land. Various kinds of outputs can be extracted, such as trajectories of the overall movement of specific particles and related alterations of their characteristics with time, snapshots of the domain with respect to suspended or deposited matter and natural concentrations of sediments at every required temporal and spatial point. Indicative results from yearly and monthly simulations, using input baroclinic circulation data from the North Aegean Sea model and river discharges are presented and discussed, including outputs from a Typical One-Year Simulation (TOYS), the simulation of the period from 3 September 2001 to 31 August 2002 (S1A2) and the January 2003 experiment (J03). The description of the processes that have been incorporated in the parameterization covers the most significant factors controlling transport and mixing of fine grained sediments in the marine environment, thus validating the accuracy and completeness of the model. One of the major advantages, apart from the observation of the phenomena in scales smaller than the grid size, describing the natural processes more accurately, is the flexibility in accepting various pollutant sources and the applicability to different domains with minor modifications. The model has been incorporated in the MFSTEP project, as part of the developed operational forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea. The application can be used for the prognosis of the seawater quality for current and for future conditions, enabling employment as part of a near-real time observation system or to formulate decisions for the protection of the seawater environment.

Modeling of the circulation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea with the Princeton Ocean Model - M. A. Ahumada; A. Cruzado (Ocean Science, 2007)
The Princeton Ocean Model – POM (Blumberg and Mellor, 1987) has been implemented in the Northwestern Mediterranean nested (in one-way off-line mode) to a general circulation model of the Mediterranean Sea – OGCM (Pinardi and Masetti, 2000; Demirov and Pinardi, 2002) in order to investigate if this model configuration is capable of reproducing the major features of the circulation as known from observations and to improve what has been made by previous numerical modeling works. According to the model results, the large-scale cyclonic circulation in the northern part of the Northwestern Mediterranean is, at least in the upper layers, less coherent in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. Furthermore, there is evidence that the mesoscale structure (eddies and meanders) is, during all year, a significant dynamic characteristic in this region of the Mediterranean Sea. Finally, concerning the circulation in the lower layers, the model results have confirmed that Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) and Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) follow essentially a cyclonic path during all year.

Factors affecting the quality of XBT data – results of analyses on profiles from the Western Mediterranean Sea - F. Reseghetti; M. Borghini; G. M. R. Manzella (Ocean Science, 2007)
EXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) temperature profiles collected in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System – Toward Environmental Prediction (MFS-TEP) project have been compared with CTD measurements. New procedures for the quality control of recorded values have been developed and checked. Some sources of possible uncertainties and errors, such as the response time of the apparatus (XBT probe, thermistor and readout chain), or the influence of initial conditions are also analysed. To deal with the high homogeneity of Mediterranean waters, a new technique to compute the fall rate coefficients, that give a better reproduction of the depth of thermal structures, has been proposed, and new customized coefficients have been calculated. After the application of a temperature correction, the overall uncertainties in depth and in temperature measurements have been estimated.

Inferring the zonal distribution of measured changes in the meridional overturning circulation - A. M. de Boer; H. L. Johnson (Ocean Science, 2007)
Recently, hydrographic measurements have been used to argue that the meridional overturning circulation at 25° N has decreased by 30% over the last 50 years. Here we show that the most likely interpretation consistent with this approach (i.e., with the dynamic method together with a level-of-no-motion assumption and Ekman dynamics) is that any decrease in strength of the deep western boundary current must have been compensated, not by a basin-wide increase in upper layer southward flow, but by changes in the nonlinear region immediately outside of the Florida Straits.

How does ocean ventilation change under global warming? - A. Gnanadesikan; J. L. Russell (Ocean Science, 2007)
Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

The Sicily Channel Regional Model forecasting system: initial boundary conditions sensitivity and case study evaluation - S. Gaberšek; R. Sorgente; S. Natale; A. Ribotti; A. Olita; M. Astraldi; M. Borghini (Ocean Science, 2007)
The Sicily Channel Regional Model forecasting system was tested using an optimization package for the initial and lateral boundary conditions. Spurious high frequency oscillations during the spin-up time were successfully reduced both in duration and magnitude by optimizing the time tendency of the free surface elevation using the Variational Initialization and Forcing Platform method developed in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System Towards the Environmental Prediction project. The effect of optimization was most profound for the free surface elevation, where all oscillations with periods shorter than 4 h were suppressed. The overall forecast skill was assessed on a 5 day case study starting on 6 April 2005, characterized by a fast passage of a deepening atmospheric low–pressure field with strong winds and marked wind direction change. We compared the predicted variables with in–situ and remotely sensed data. The forecasts of temperature, including the sea surface temperature, and salinity were quite successful, while the forecasted currents, especially within the surface layer, were not in good agreement with the measurements.

Overturning cells in the Southern Ocean and subtropical gyres - J. A. Polton; D. P. Marshall (Ocean Science, 2007)
The circulation of the subtropical gyres can be decomposed into a horizontal recirculation along contours of constant Bernoulli potential and an overturning circulation across these contours. While the geometry and topology of Bernoulli contours is more complicated in the subtropical gyres than in the Southern Ocean, these subtropical overturning circulations are very much analogous to the overturning cell found in the Southern Ocean. This analogy is formalised through an exact integral constraint, including the rectified effects of transient eddies. The constraint can be interpreted either in terms of vertical fluxes of potential vorticity, or equivalently as an integral buoyancy budget for an imaginary fluid parcel recirculating around a closed Bernoulli contour. Under conditions of vanishing buoyancy and mechanical forcing, the constraint reduces to a generalised non-acceleration condition, under which the Eulerian-mean and eddy-induced overturning circulations exactly compensate. The terms in the integral constraint are diagnosed in an eddy-permitting ocean model in both the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the Southern Ocean. The extent to which the Eulerian-mean and eddy-induced overturning circulations compensate is discussed in each case.

A nested circulation model for the North Aegean Sea - V. Kourafalou; K. Tsiaras (Ocean Science, 2007)
A multi-nested approach has been employed for numerical simulations in the northern part of the Aegean Sea in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecast System: Toward Environmental Predictions) project. The high resolution (~1.6 km) hydrodynamic model of the North Aegean Sea (NAS) has been nested within a coarser model of the Eastern Mediterranean (resolution ~3.6 km) which is also nested within a basin scale model for the Mediterranean Sea (resolution of ~7 km). The high resolution of the NAS model allows the representation of topographic details that have never been reproduced in modelling studies of the region. Such details can enhance the simulation of coastal features, but can also influence basin-scale processes, such as the pathways of waters of Black Sea origin inflowing at the Dardanelles Straits and bifurcating through island passages. We employ comparisons of the North Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean models in terms of computed flow fields and distribution of hydrodynamic properties, to evaluate the nesting procedure, the initialization requirements and the ability of a nested model to perform reliable short term simulations that employ high resolution atmospheric forcing, when initialized from a coarser OGCM. We show that the topographic details of the high resolution, nested NAS model affect the distribution of the Dardanelles plume and the evolution of coastal currents, while the imposed high frequency, high resolution atmospheric forcing allows for the formation of an overall energetic flow field after a few days of spin-up period. Increased resolution and smaller coastal depth in the NAS simulations influence the flow through island passages and straits. A longer initialization procedure results in the establishment of stronger currents and better-developed buoyant plumes.

High resolution modelling of the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC) - K. Logemann; I. Harms (Ocean Science, 2006)
The northward inflow of Atlantic Water through Denmark Strait – the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC) – is simulated with a numerical model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. The model uses the technique of adaptive grid refinement which allows a high spatial resolution (1 km horizontal, 10 m vertical) around Iceland. The model is used to assess time and space variability of volume and heat fluxes for the years 1997–2003. Passive tracers are applied to study origin and composition of NIIC water masses. The NIIC originates from two sources: the Irminger Current, flowing as part of the sub-polar gyre in 100–500 m depth along the Reykjanes Ridge and the shallow Icelandic coastal current, flowing north-westward on the south-west Icelandic shelf. The ratio of volume flux between the deep and shallow branch is around 2:1. The NIIC continues as a warm and saline branch northward through Denmark Strait where it entrains large amounts of polar water due to the collision with the southward flowing East Greenland Current. After passing Denmark Strait, the NIIC follows the coast line eastward being an important heat source for north Icelandic waters. At least 60% of the temporal temperature variability of north Icelandic waters is caused by the NIIC. The NIIC volume and heat transport is highly variable and depends strongly on the wind field north-east of Denmark Strait. Daily means can change from 1 Sv eastward to 2 Sv westward within a few days. Highest monthly mean transport rates occur in summer when winds from north are weak, whereas the volume flux is reduced by around 50% in winter. Summer heat flux rates can be even three times higher than in winter. The simulation also shows variability on the interannual scale. In particular weak winds from north during winter 2002/2003 combined with mild weather conditions south of Iceland led to anomalous high NIIC volume (+40%) and heat flux (+60%) rates. In this period, simulated north Icelandic water temperatures are at least 0.5 K warmer than average.

Transformation of Levantine Intermediate Water tracked by MEDARGO floats in the Western Mediterranean - M. Emelianov; J. Font; A. Turiel; C. Millot; J. Solé; P.-M. Poulain; A. Julià; M.-R. Vitrià (Ocean Science, 2006)
A clustering methodology is applied to investigate the thermohaline structure of Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) in the western Mediterranean basin. Sixteen free-drifting hydrographic profilers were deployed in the framework of the MFSTEP project (MEDARGO component) from September 2003. A total of 925 CTD profiles collected up to the beginning of February 2006 have been used in the analysis. The results are in good agreement with the general circulation scheme for intermediate waters in the basin and confirm the hypothesis about a "discrete-continuous" thermohaline structure of LIW.

Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model – Part II: The role of the upper ocean short-term periodic and episodic mixing events - E. E. Popova; A. C. Coward; G. A. Nurser; B. de Cuevas; T. R. Anderson (Ocean Science, 2006)
The use of 6 h, daily, weekly and monthly atmospheric forcing resulted in dramatically different predictions of plankton productivity in a global 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. Resolving the diurnal cycle of atmospheric variability by use of 6 h forcing, and hence also diurnal variability in UML depth, produced the largest difference, reducing predicted global primary and new production by 25% and 10% respectively relative to that predicted with daily and weekly forcing. This decrease varied regionally, being a 30% reduction in equatorial areas primarily because of increased light limitation resulting from deepening of the mixed layer overnight as well as enhanced storm activity, and 25% at moderate and high latitudes primarily due to increased grazing pressure resulting from late winter stratification events. Mini-blooms of phytoplankton and zooplankton occur in the model during these events, leading to zooplankton populations being sufficiently well developed to suppress the progress of phytoplankton blooms. A 10% increase in primary production was predicted in the peripheries of the oligotrophic gyres due to increased storm-induced nutrient supply end enhanced winter production during the short term stratification events that are resolved in the run forced by 6 h meteorological fields. By resolving the diurnal cycle, model performance was significantly improved with respect to several common problems: underestimated primary production in the oligotrophic gyres; overestimated primary production in the Southern Ocean; overestimated magnitude of the spring bloom in the subarctic Pacific Ocean, and overestimated primary production in equatorial areas. The result of using 6 h forcing on predicted ecosystem dynamics was profound, the effects persisting far beyond the hourly timescale, and having major consequences for predicted global and new production on an annual basis.

Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model – Part I: Validation of the biological simulation - E. E. Popova; A. C. Coward; G. A. Nurser; B. de Cuevas; M. J. R. Fasham; T. R. Anderson (Ocean Science, 2006)
A global general circulation model coupled to a simple six-compartment ecosystem model is used to study the extent to which global variability in primary and export production can be realistically predicted on the basis of advanced parameterizations of upper mixed layer physics, without recourse to introducing extra complexity in model biology. The "K profile parameterization" (KPP) scheme employed, combined with 6-hourly external forcing, is able to capture short-term periodic and episodic events such as diurnal cycling and storm-induced deepening. The model realistically reproduces various features of global ecosystem dynamics that have been problematic in previous global modelling studies, using a single generic parameter set. The realistic simulation of deep convection in the North Atlantic, and lack of it in the North Pacific and Southern Oceans, leads to good predictions of chlorophyll and primary production in these contrasting areas. Realistic levels of primary production are predicted in the oligotrophic gyres due to high frequency external forcing of the upper mixed layer (accompanying paper Popova et al., 2006) and novel parameterizations of zooplankton excretion. Good agreement is shown between model and observations at various JGOFS time series sites: BATS, KERFIX, Papa and HOT. One exception is the northern North Atlantic where lower grazing rates are needed, perhaps related to the dominance of mesozooplankton there. The model is therefore not globally robust in the sense that additional parameterizations are needed to realistically simulate ecosystem dynamics in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, the work emphasises the need to pay particular attention to the parameterization of mixed layer physics in global ocean ecosystem modelling as a prerequisite to increasing the complexity of ecosystem models.

Assessment of the impact of TS assimilation from ARGO floats in the Mediterranean Sea - A. Griffa; A. Molcard; F. Raicich; V. Rupolo (Ocean Science, 2006)
In this paper, the impact of assimilating Temperature (T) and Salinity (S) profiles from Argo floats in the Mediterranean Sea is quantitatively investigated using the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) approach. The impact of varying the number of floats and their launch positions is considered, using numerical simulations with a MOM model and a reduced-order multivariate Optimal Interpolation scheme (SOFA) for assimilation. Realistic float coverage and launch positions used during the first MFSTEP phase are considered, as well as "ideal" density coverage that can be envisioned for the future, corresponding to a double coverage with respect to MFSTEP and with floats released along the VOS tracks. The most effective float trajectories are identified, showing that frontal regions play a major role, and that it is crucial to maintain a sufficient coverage of them. In addition to this, a comparison is also performed between the results obtained from MEDARGO floats in ideal conditions and results from "ideal" profiles taken at fixed points along the VOS tracks, as for the XBT data. For consistency the coverage considered is double the actual XBT coverage during MFSTEP, resulting in a threefold increase in the number of profiles compared to the MEDARGO experiment. The maximum error reduction is of approximately 10%, suggesting that spatially coarser profiles from floats can be more efficient since they follow flow features.

Implementation of position assimilation for ARGO floats in a realistic Mediterranean Sea OPA model and twin experiment testing - V. Taillandier; A. Griffa (Ocean Science, 2006)
In this paper, a Lagrangian assimilation method is presented and implemented in a realistic OPA OGCM with the goal of providing an assessment of the assimilation of realistic Argo float position data. We focus on an application in the Mediterranean Sea, where in the framework of the MFSTEP project an array of Argo floats have been deployed with parking depth at 350 m and sampling interval of 5 days. In order to quantitatively test the method, the "twin experiment" approach is followed and synthetic trajectories are considered. The method is first tested using "perfect" data, i.e. without shear drift errors and with relatively high coverage. Results show that the assimilation is effective, correcting the velocity field at the parking depth, as well as the velocity profiles and the geostrophically adjusted mass field. We then consider the impact of realistic datasets, which are spatially sparse and characterized by shear drift errors. Such data provide a limited global correction of the model state, but they efficiently act on the location, intensity and shape of the described mesoscale structures of the intermediate circulation.

Study of the combined effects of data assimilation and grid nesting in ocean models – application to the Gulf of Lions - L. Vandenbulcke; A. Barth; M. Rixen; A. Alvera-Azcarate; Z. Ben Bouallegue; J. M. Beckers (Ocean Science, 2006)
Modern operational ocean forecasting systems routinely use data assimilation techniques in order to take observations into account in the hydrodynamic model. Moreover, as end users require higher and higher resolution predictions, especially in coastal zones, it is now common to run nested models, where the coastal model gets its open-sea boundary conditions from a low-resolution global model. This configuration is used in the "Mediterranean Forecasting System: Towards environmental predictions" (MFSTEP) project. A global model covering the whole Mediterranean Sea is run weekly, performing 1 week of hindcast and a 10-day forecast. Regional models, using different codes and covering different areas, then use this forecast to implement boundary conditions. Local models in turn use the regional model forecasts for their own boundary conditions. This nested system has proven to be a viable and efficient system to achieve high-resolution weekly forecasts. However, when observations are available in some coastal zone, it remains unclear whether it is better to assimilate them in the global or local model. We perform twin experiments and assimilate observations in the global or in the local model, or in both of them together. We show that, when interested in the local models forecast and provided the global model fields are approximately correct, the best results are obtained when assimilating observations in the local model.

Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3 - W. M. Connolley; A. B. Keen; A. J. McLaren (Ocean Science, 2006)
We present results of an implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) sea ice dynamics scheme into the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model HadCM3. Although the large-scale simulation of sea ice in HadCM3 is quite good with this model, the lack of a full dynamical model leads to errors in the detailed representation of sea ice and limits our confidence in its future predictions. We find that introducing the EVP scheme results in a worse initial simulation of the sea ice. This paper documents various enhancements made to improve the simulation, resulting in a sea ice simulation that is better than the original HadCM3 scheme overall. Importantly, it is more physically based and provides a more solid foundation for future development. We then consider the interannual variability of the sea ice in the new model and demonstrate improvements over the HadCM3 simulation.

DINEOF reconstruction of clouded images including error maps – application to the Sea-Surface Temperature around Corsican Island - J.-M. Beckers; A. Barth; A. Alvera-Azcárate (Ocean Science, 2006)
We present an extension to the Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions (DINEOF) technique which allows not only to fill in clouded images but also to provide an estimation of the error covariance of the reconstruction. This additional information is obtained by an analogy with optimal interpolation. It is shown that the error fields can be obtained with a clever rearrangement of calculations at a cost comparable to that of the interpolation itself. The method is presented on the reconstruction of sea-surface temperature in the Ligurian Sea and around the Corsican Island (Mediterranean Sea), including the calculation of inter-annual variability of average surface values and their expected errors. The application shows that the error fields are not only able to reflect the data-coverage structure but also the covariances of the physical fields.

Analysis of the circulation and shelf-slope exchanges in the continental margin of the northwestern Mediterranean - A. Jordi; G. Basterretxea; A. Orfila; J. Tintoré (Ocean Science, 2006)
In this paper, we present the results from a high horizontal resolution numerical simulation of the northwestern Mediterranean using a z-level, non-hydrostatic, primitive equation ocean model (DieCAST). The high resolution allows an accurate representation of the submarine canyons that presides in the region. The model is one-way coupled to a large scale model of the Mediterranean Sea through open boundaries and uses the atmospheric forcing fields provided in terms of HIRLAM outputs by the Spanish National Institute of Meteorology. Results show that the model can successfully reproduce the complex general circulation characteristics of the area, including the modifications induced by canyons in their vicinity and other phenomena observed such as instabilities and coastal trapped waves. The sea surface temperature is similar to satellite observations except that simulated temperatures are slightly warmer near the coast than observations and colder near the open boundaries. An important topic of this work is the computation of the shelf-slope exchanges, which are able to renew shelf waters in a few months.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of sea surface height variability in the North Atlantic Ocean - D. Cromwell (Ocean Science, 2006)
We investigate the spatial and temporal variability of sea surface height (SSH) in the North Atlantic basin using satellite altimeter data from October 1992–January 2004. Our primary aim is to provide a detailed description of such variability, including that associated with propagating signals. We also investigate possible correlations between SSH variability and atmospheric pressure changes as represented by climate indices. We first investigate interannual SSH variations by deriving the complex empirical orthogonal functions (CEOFs) of altimeter data lowpass-filtered at 18 months. We determine the spatial structure of the leading four modes (both in amplitude and phase) and also the associated principal component (PC) time series. Using wavelet analysis we derive the time-varying spectral density of the PCs, revealing when particular modes were strongest between 1992–2004. The spatial pattern of the leading CEOF, comprising 30% of the total variability, displays a 5-year periodicity in phase; signal propagation is particularly marked in the Labrador Sea. The second mode, with a dominant 3-year signal, has strong variability in the eastern basin. Secondly, we focus on the Azores subtropical frontal zone. The leading mode (35%) is strong in the south and east of this region with strong variations at 3- and 5-year periods. The second mode (21%) has a near-zonal band of low variance between 22°–27° N, sandwiched between two regions of high variance. Thirdly, we lowpass filter the altimeter data at a cutoff of 30 days, instead of 18 months, in order to retain signals associated with propagating baroclinic Rossby waves and/or eddies. The leading mode is the annual steric signal, around 46% of the SSH variability. The third and fourth CEOFs, 11% of the remaining variability, are associated with westward propagation which is particularly dominant in a "waveband" between 32°–36° N. For all three cases considered above, no significant cross-correlation is found between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the amplitude of the leading four PCs of interannual SSH variability. The only exception is an anti-correlation found over the North Atlantic basin between the NAO and the 4th PC. In the subtropical front, the East Atlantic Pattern index is anti-correlated with the leading PC for SSH variations lowpass filtered at 30 days. Further investigation of forcing mechanisms is suggested using hindcasts from ocean general circulation models.

Energetics of the layer-thickness form drag based on an integral identity - H. Aiki; T. Yamagata (Ocean Science, 2006)
The vertical redistribution of the geostrophic momentum by the residual effects of pressure perturbations (called the layer-thickness form drag) is investigated using thickness-weighted temporal-averaged mean primitive equations for a continuously stratified fluid in an adiabatic formulation. A four-box energy diagram, in which the mean and eddy kinetic energies are defined by the thickness-weighted mean velocity and the deviation from it, respectively, shows that the layer-thickness form drag reduces the mean kinetic energy and endows the eddy field with an energy cascade. The energy equations are derived using an identity (called the "pile-up rule") between cumulative sums of the Eulerian mean quantity and the thickness-weighted mean quantity in each vertical column. The pile-up rule shows that the thickness-weighted mean velocity satisfies a no-normal-flow boundary condition at the top and bottom of the ocean, which enables the volume budget of pressure flux divergence in the energy diagram to be determined. With the pile-up rule, the total kinetic energy based on the Eulerian mean can be rewritten in a thickness-weighted form. The four-box energy diagram in the present study should be consistent with energy diagrams of layer models, the temporal-residual-mean theory, and Iwasaki's atmospheric theory. Under certain assumptions, the work of the layer-thickness form drag in the global ocean circulation is suggested to be comparable to the work done by the wind forcing.

Tropical extra-tropical thermocline water mass exchanges in the Community Climate Model v.3 Part I: the Atlantic Ocean - I. Wainer; A. Lazar; A. Solomon (Ocean Science, 2006)
The climatological annual mean tropical-extra-tropical pathways of thermocline waters in the Atlantic Ocean are investigated with the NCAR CCSM numerical coupled model. Results from three numerical experiments are analyzed: Two are fully coupled runs with different spatial resolution (T42 and T85) for the atmospheric component. The third numerical experiment is an ocean-only run forced by NCEP winds and fluxes. Results show that the different atmospheric resolutions have a significant impact on the subduction pathways in the Atlantic because of how the wind field is represented. These simulation results also show that the water subducted at the subtropics reaching the EUC is entirely from the South Atlantic. The coupled model ability to simulate the STCs is discussed.

Simulating biomass assimilation in a Mediterranean ecosystem model using SOFA: setup and identical twin experiments - G. Crispi; M. Pacciaroni; D. Viezzoli (Ocean Science, 2006)
Assessing the potential improvement of basin scale ecosystem forecasting for the Mediterranean Sea requires biochemical data assimilation techniques. To this aim, a feasibility study of surface biomass assimilation is performed following an identical twin experiment approach. NPZD ecosystem data generator, embedded in one eighth degree general circulation model, is integrated with the reduced-order optimal interpolation System for Ocean Forecasting and Analysis. The synthetic "sea-truth" data are winter daily averages obtained from the control run (CR). The twin experiments consist in performing two runs: the free run (FR) with summer-depleted phytoplankton initial conditions and the assimilated run (AR), in which, starting from the same FR phytoplankton concentrations, weekly surface biomasses averaged from the CR data are assimilated. The FR and AR initial conditions modify the winter bloom state of the phytoplankton all over the basin and reduce the total nitrogen, i.e. the energy of the biochemical ecosystem. The results of this feasibility study shows good performance of the system in the case of phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus and surface inorganic nitrogen. The weak results in the case of basin inorganic nitrogen and total nitrogen, the latter nonperformant at surface, are discussed.

Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP oriented tunings - R. Brožková; M. Derková; M. Belluš; A. Farda (Ocean Science, 2006)
ALADIN/MFSTEP is a configuration of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN run in a dedicated real-time mode for the purposes of the MFSTEP Project. A special attention was paid to the quality of atmospheric fluxes used for the forcing of fine-scale oceanographic models. This paper describes the novelties applied in ALADIN/MFSTEP initiated by the MFSTEP demands, leading also to improvements in general weather forecasting.

The assessment of temperature and salinity sampling strategies in the Mediterranean Sea: idealized and real cases - F. Raicich (Ocean Science, 2006)
Temperature and salinity sampling strategies are studied and compared by means of the Observing System Simulation Experiment technique in order to assess their usefulness for data assimilation in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System. Their impact in a Mediterranean General Circulation Model is quantified in numerical twin experiments via bivariate data assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles in summer and winter conditions, using the optimal interpolation algorithm implemented in the System for Ocean Forecasting and Analysis. The data impact is quantified by the error reduction in the assimilation run relative to the free run. The sampling strategies studied here include various combinations of temperature and salinity profiles collected along Volunteer Observing Ship (VOS) tracks, by Mediterranean Multi-sensor Moored Arrays (M3A), a Glider and ARGO floating profilers. Idealized sampling strategies involving VOS data allow to recognize the impact of individual tracks. As a result, the most effective tracks are those crossing regions characterized by high mesoscale variability and the presence of frontal structures between water masses. Sampling strategies adopted in summer–autumn 2004 and winter 2005 are studied to assess the impact of VOS and ARGO data in real conditions. The combination of all available data allows to achieve up to 30% error reductions. ARGO data produce a small impact when alone, but represent the only continuous coverage of the basin and are useful as a complement to VOS data sets. Localized data sets, as those obtained by M3As and the Glider, seem to have an almost negligible impact in the basin-scale assessment, and are expected to be more effective at regional scale.

Distribution of overwintering Calanus in the North Norwegian Sea - A. Edvardsen; J. M. Pedersen; D. Slagstad; T. Semenova; A. Timonin (Ocean Science, 2006)
During winter 2003 and 2004, zooplankton and hydrographic data were collected in the northern parts of the Norwegian Sea (68–72° N, 8–17° E) west of the Norwegian shelf break at depths down to 1800 m. The results cover both inter and intra annual changes of hydrography and distribution of Calanus spp. For the whole survey area, average seawater temperature down to 1000 m was higher in 2004 than in the same period in 2003. For the upper 500 m the difference was ca. 1°C. Calanus finmarchicus dominated at ca. 75% of the total copepod abundance. Typical abundance of C. finmarchicus in the survey area was 30 000–40 000 m−2. C. hyperboreus was found deeper than C. finmarchicus while other copepods were found at the depth of C. finmarchicus or shallower. From January to February 2004, the peak of abundance of C. finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus shifted approximately 300 m upwards indicating that ascent from overwintering depth took place at a speed of 10 m d−1 during this period. In general, high abundance of copepods was found adjacent to the shelf slope while oceanic areas had low and intermediate abundance. In the southern part of the survey area, location of high and low copepod abundance shifted both between and within years. In the northern part of the survey area where the shelf slope is less steep, copepods was present at intermediate and high abundance during all surveys.

Distributions of mixed layer properties in North Pacific water mass formation areas: comparison of Argo floats and World Ocean Atlas 2001 - F. M. Bingham; T. Suga (Ocean Science, 2006)
Winter mixed layer characteristics in the North Pacific Ocean are examined and compared between Argo floats in 2006 and the World Ocean Atlas 2001 (WOA01) climatology for a series of named water masses, North Pacific Tropical Water (NPTW), Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW), North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW), Light Central Mode Water (LCMW) and Dense Central Mode Water (DCMW). The WOA01 is found to be in good agreement with the Argo data in terms of water mass volumes, average temperature-salinity (T-S) properties, and outcrop areas. The exception to this conclusion is for the central mode waters, DCMW and LCMW, whose outcropping is shown to be much more intermittent than is apparent in the WOA01 and whose T-S properties vary from what is shown in the WOA01. Distributions of mixed layer T-S properties measured by floats are examined within the outcropping areas defined by the WOA01 and show some shifting of T-S characteristics within the confines of the named water masses. In 2006, all the water masses were warmer than climatology on average, with a magnitude of about 0.5°C. The NPTW, NPSTMW and LCMW were saltier than climatology and the ESTMW and DCMW fresher, with magnitudes of about 0.05. In order to put these results into context, differences between Argo and WOA01 were examined over the North Pacific between 20 and 45° N. A large-scsale warming and freshening is seen throughout this area, except for the western North Pacific, where results were more mixed.

On the representation of regional characteristics by hydrographic measurements at central stations in four deep basins of the Baltic Sea - J. H. Reissmann (Ocean Science, 2006)
In this work the eddy resolving data sets of salinity, temperature, and oxygen content aquired in the framework of the German-Russian project MESODYN (MESOscale DYNamics) in the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, the Stolpe Furrow, and the Eastern Gotland Basin during summer and winter stratification situations are utilized to examine to which extent the observations at the central monitoring stations within these basins are representative for the spatial mean state of the corresponding region with respect to comparative monitoring purposes of the whole Baltic Sea. The investigation covers profiles of salinity, potential temperature, oxygen content, potential density, and squared buoyancy or Brunt-Väisälä frequency. Moreover, some parameters of the halocline, namely its depth, thickness, and upper and lower boundaries, and the first baroclinic Rossby radii are subject to the investigation. The profiles match best for the squared buoyancy or Brunt-Väisälä frequency. The profiles of salinity match best in the Eastern Gotland Basin and worst in the Arkona Basin both for summer and winter stratification situations. The overall agreement for the halocline parameters is good. The baroclinic Rossby radii match their spatial mean values well, if the depth range considered for their calculation is restricted to the mean depth in each region at the bottom side. In doing so they also match the spatial mean values of the first baroclinic Rossby radii calculated considering the whole depth range at each station. Overall, the regional characteristics of the investigated quantities and parameters are represented well by the hydrographic measurements at the central stations in the four regions in spite of some significant differences between the spatial mean states and the observations at the central stations. In particular, the observations at the central stations seem to be usefull for comparisons between these regions. However, the observed differences may affect regional investigations covering just a single region.

Interannual-to-decadal variability of North Atlantic air-sea CO 2 fluxes - S. Raynaud; J. C. Orr; O. Aumont; K. B. Rodgers; P. Yiou (Ocean Science, 2006)
The magnitude of the interannual variability of North Atlantic air-sea CO2 fluxes remains uncertain. Interannual extremes simulated by atmospheric inverse approaches are typically about ±0.3 Pg C yr−1, whereas those from ocean models are less than ±0.1 Pg C yr−1. Thus variability in the North Atlantic is either about 60% or less than 20% of the global variability of about ±0.5 Pg C yr−1 (as estimated by both approaches). Here we explore spatiotemporal variability within the North Atlantic basin of one ocean model in order to more fully describe potential counteracting trends in different regions that may explain why basin-wide variability is small relative to global-scale variability. Typical atmospheric inverse approaches separate the North Atlantic into at most a few regions and thus cannot properly simulate such counteracting effects. For this study, two simulations were made with a biogeochemical model coupled to a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM), which itself was forced by 55-year NCEP reanalysis fields. In the first simulation, atmospheric CO2 was maintained at the preindustrial level (278 ppmv); in the second simulation, atmospheric CO2 followed the observed increase. Simulated air-sea CO2 fluxes and associated variables were then analysed with a statistical tool known as multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). We found that the subtropical gyre is not the largest contributor to the overall, basin-wide variability, in contrast to previous suggestions. The subpolar gyre and the inter-gyre region (the transition area between subpolar and subtropical gyres) also contribute with multipolar anomalies at multiple frequencies: these tend to cancel one another in terms of the basin-wide air-sea CO2 flux. We found a strong correlation between the air-sea CO2 fluxes and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but only if one takes into account time lags as does MSSA (maximum r=0.64 for lags between 1 and 3 years). The effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 (the anthropogenic perturbation) on total variability was negligible at interannual time scales, whereas at the decadal (13-year) time scale, it increased variability by 30%.

The circulation of the Persian Gulf: a numerical study - J. Kämpf; M. Sadrinasab (Ocean Science, 2006)
We employ a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (COHERENS) in a fully prognostic mode to study the circulation and water mass properties of the Persian Gulf – a large inverse estuary. Our findings, which are in good agreement with observational evidence, suggest that the Persian Gulf experiences a distinct seasonal cycle in which a gulf-wide cyclonic overturning circulation establishes in spring and summer, but this disintegrates into mesoscale eddies in autumn and winter. Establishment of the gulf-wide circulation coincides with establishment of thermal stratification and strengthening of the baroclinic exchange circulation through the Strait of Hormuz. Winter cooling of extreme saline (>45) water in shallow regions along the coast of United Arab Emirates is a major driver of this baroclinic circulation.

Remote detection of water property changes from a time series of oceanographic data - A. Henry-Edwards; M. Tomczak (Ocean Science, 2006)
A water mass analysis method based on a constrained minimization technique is developed to derive water property changes in water mass formation regions from oceanographic station data taken at significant distance from the formation regions. The method is tested with two synthetic data sets, designed to mirror conditions in the North Atlantic at the Bermuda BATS time series station. The method requires careful definition of constraints before it produces reliable results. It is shown that an analysis of the error fields under different constraint assumptions can identify which properties vary most over the period of the observations. The method reproduces the synthetic data sets extremely well if all properties other than those that are identified as undergoing significant variations are held constant during the minimization.

Detecting changes in Labrador Sea Water through a water mass analysis of BATS data - A. Henry-Edwards; M. Tomczak (Ocean Science, 2006)
A new water mass analysis technique is used to analyse the BATS oceanographic data set in the Sargasso Sea of 1988–1998 for changes in Labrador Sea Water (LSW) properties. The technique is based on a sequential quadratic programming method and requires careful definition of constraints to produce reliable results. Variations in LSW temperature and salinity observed in the Labrador Sea are used to define the constraints. It is shown that to minimize the residuals while matching the observed temperature and salinity changes in the source region the nitrate concentration in the Labrador Sea has to be allowed to vary as well. It is concluded that during the period of investigation nitrate underwent significant variations in the Labrador Sea.

Transient residence and exposure times - E. J. M. Delhez (Ocean Science, 2006)
The residence time measures the time spent by a water parcel or a pollutant in a given water body and is therefore widely used in environmental studies. The adjoint method introduced by Delhez et al. (2004) to compute this diagnostic is revised here to take into account the effect of the initialization and of the boundary conditions. In addition to the equation for the mean residence time, it is suggested to solve a simple advection-diffusion problem to quantify the effect of the initialization and clarify the interpretation of the results. Using the two same equations but with modified boundary conditions, the method can also be used to quantify the accumulated time spent by water/tracer parcels in a control domain. This diagnostic is called "exposure time". Analytical and realistic model results are used to illustrate the concepts.

Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice-ocean system: the role of the thermal and mechanical forcing - W. Lefebvre; H. Goosse (Ocean Science, 2005)
The global sea ice-ocean model ORCA2-LIM is used to investigate the impact of the thermal and mechanical forcing associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the Antarctic sea ice-ocean system. The model is driven by idealized forcings based on regressions between the wind stress and the air temperature at one hand and the SAM index the other hand. The wind-stress component strongly affects the overall patterns of the ocean circulation with a northward surface drift, a downwelling at about 45° S and an upwelling in the vicinity of the Antarctic continent when the SAM is positive. On the other hand, the thermal forcing has a negligible effect on the ocean currents. For sea ice, both the wind-stress (mechanical) and the air temperature (thermal) components have a significant impact. The mechanical part induces a decrease of the sea ice thickness close to the continent and a sharp decrease of the mean sea ice thickness in the Weddell sector. In general, the sea ice area also diminishes, with a maximum decrease in the Weddell Sea. On the contrary, the thermal part tends to increase the ice concentration in all sectors except in the Weddell Sea, where the ice area shrinks. This thermal effect is the strongest in autumn and in winter due to the larger temperature differences associated with the SAM during these seasons. The sum of the thermal and mechaninal effects gives a dipole response of sea ice to the SAM, with a decrease of the ice area in the Weddell Sea and around the Antarctic Peninsula and an increase in the Ross and Amundsen Seas during high SAM years. This is in good agreement with the observed response of the ice cover to the SAM.

Water mass transformation in the North Atlantic over 1985-2002 simulated in an eddy-permitting model - R. Marsh; S. A. Josey; A. J. G. de Nurser; B. A. Cuevas; A. C. Coward (Ocean Science, 2005)
Water mass transformation in the North Atlantic is examined in an eddy-permitting simulation with the OCCAM ocean general circulation model, forced by realistic surface fluxes over the period 1985-2002. Three Atlantic regions are considered - the subtropics, mid-latitudes, the northeast Atlantic - along with the Labrador Sea. The oceanic boundaries of each region coincide with hydrographic sections occupied in recent years. These regions broadly represent the formation sites of Eighteen Degree Water (EDW), Subtropical Mode Water (STMW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) and Labrador Sea Water (LSW). Water mass budgets are obtained for each region and year. Terms in the budget comprise surface-forced transformation rates, boundary exchanges and unsteadiness. Transformation rates due to "total mixing" are obtained as the difference between net and surface transformation rates. Transports at the boundaries are evaluated alongside recent hydrographic section datasets, while surface-driven and mixing-driven transformation rates are compared with estimates based on air-sea flux datasets and inverse analysis of hydrographic data. In general OCCAM compares well with the observations, although two particular discrepancies are identified: deep overflows at high latitudes too light by around 0.2 kg m-3 and spurious heat gain of up to 100 Wm-2 east of the Grand Banks. Over 1985-2002, there is considerable variability on a range of timescales, in the annual surface-driven and mixing-driven formation rates of all four water masses. In the case of EDW and STMW, surface-driven and mixing-driven formation rates largely cancel. This is not so for SPMW and LSW, leading to regional net formation rates of up to 17 Sv and 15 Sv, respectively. In particular, OCCAM successfully simulates the strong LSW formation event of 1989-1994.

Laminae type and possible mechanisms for the formation of laminated sediments in the Shaban Deep, northern Red Sea - I. A. Seeberg-Elverfeldt; C. B. Lange; J. Pätzold; G. Kuhn (Ocean Science, 2005)
Laminated sediments in the Shaban Deep, a brine-filled basin in the northern Red Sea, were analyzed with backscattered electron imagery. Here we present possible mechanisms involved in the formation of laminae of various types and homogenous intervals arising from the detailed investigation of multicore GeoB 7805-1 (26°13.9' N and 35°22.6' E; water depth 1447 m) and gravity core GeoB 5836-2 (26°12.61' N, 35°21.56' E; water depth 1475 m). Sediment makeup includes six types: a) a laminated structure with alternating light (mainly coccoliths) and dark (diatom frustules) layers, where the diatom component is indicative of the intra-annual variability between stratification and mixing events; b) a pocket-like structure attributed to the sinking of particles within fecal pellets and aggregates; c) a matrix of tightly packed diatoms that relates to extended stratification/mixing periods of the water column; d) homogenous intervals that result from turbidity deposition; e) silt accumulations which origin may lie in agglutinated foraminifers; and f) pyrite layers with pyrite formation initiated at the seawater-brine interface.

Multi-year satellite observations of instability waves in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean - A. C. V. Caltabiano; I. S. Robinson; L. P. Pezzi (Ocean Science, 2005)
Instability waves in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are analysed by microwave satellite-based data spanning from 1998 to 2001. This is the first multi-year observational study of the sea surface temperature (SST) signature of the Tropical Instability Waves (TIW) in the region. SST data were used to show that the waves spectral characteristics vary from year-to-year. They also vary on each latitude north of the equator, with the region of 1° N, 15° W concentrating the largest variability when the time series is averaged along the years. Analyses of wind components show that meridional winds are more affected near the equator and 1° N, while zonal winds are more affected further north at around 3° N and 4° N. Concurrent observations of SST, wind, atmospheric water vapour, liquid cloud water, precipitation rates and wind were used to suggest the possible influence of these waves on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It seems that these instabilities have a large impact on the ITCZ due to its proximity of the equator, compared to its Pacific counterpart, and the geography of the tropical Atlantic basin. These analyses also suggest that the air-sea coupling mechanism suggested by Wallace can also be applied to the tropical Atlantic region.

El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study - G. J. van Oldenborgh; S. Y. Philip; M Collins (Ocean Science, 2005)
In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The current staus of these projections is assessed by examining a large set of climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Firstly, the patterns and time series of present-day ENSO-like model variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with that observed. Next, the strength of the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedback loops responsible for generating the ENSO cycle in the models are evaluated. Finally, we consider the projections of the models with, what we consider to be, the most realistic ENSO variability. Two of the models considered do not have interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Three models show a very regular ENSO cycle due to a strong local wind feedback in the central Pacific and weak sea surface temperature (SST) damping. Six other models have a higher frequency ENSO cycle than observed due to a weak east Pacific upwelling feedback loop. One model has much stronger upwelling feedback than observed, and another one cannot be described simply by the analysis technique. The remaining six models have a reasonable balance of feedback mechanisms and in four of these the interannual mode also resembles the observed ENSO both spatially and temporally. Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios) the most realistic six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift towards El Niño-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the skewness of the variability are too large to make any statements about the future relative strength of El Niño and La Niña events. Based on this analysis of the multi-model ensemble, we expect very little influence of global warming on ENSO.

Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations - S. M. Griffies; A. Gnanadesikan; K. W. Dixon; J. P. Dunne; R. Gerdes; M. J. Harrison; A. Rosati; J. L. Russell; B. L. Samuels; M. J. Spelman; M. Winton; R. Zhang (Ocean Science, 2005)
This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4) of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1) tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2) partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3) more accurate equation of state, (4) three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5) incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6) neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7) staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8) anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9) parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10) incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11) transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux" methods, (12) parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

Reality checks on microbial food web interactions in dilution experiments: responses to the comments of Dolan and McKeon - M. R. Landry; A. Calbet (Ocean Science, 2005)
Dolan and McKeon (2005) have recently criticized microzooplankton grazing rate estimates by the dilution approach as being systematically biased and significantly overestimated. Their argument is based on observed mortality responses of ciliated protozoa to reduced food in several coastal experiments and a global extrapolation which assumes that all grazing in all ocean systems scales to the abundance of ciliates. We suggest that these conclusions are unrealistic on several counts: they do not account for community differences between open ocean and coastal systems; they ignore direct experimental evidence supporting dilution rate estimates in the open oceans, and they discount dilution effects on mortality rate as well as growth in multi-layered, open-ocean food webs. High microzooplankton grazing rates in open-ocean systems are consistent with current views on export fluxes and trophic transfers. More importantly, significantly lower rates would fail to account for the efficient nutrient recycling requirements of these resource-limited and rapid-turnover communities.

Numerical implementation and oceanographic application of the Gibbs potential of ice - R. Feistel; W. Wagner; V. Tchijov; C. Guder (Ocean Science, 2005)
The 2004 Gibbs thermodynamic potential function of naturally abundant water ice is based on much more experimental data than its predecessors, is therefore significantly more accurate and reliable, and for the first time describes the entire temperature and pressure range of existence of this ice phase. It is expressed in the ITS-90 temperature scale and is consistent with the current scientific pure water standard, IAPWS-95, and the 2003 Gibbs potential of seawater. The combination of these formulations provides sublimation pressures, freezing points, and sea ice properties covering the parameter ranges of oceanographic interest. This paper provides source code examples in Visual Basic, Fortran and C++ for the computation of the Gibbs function of ice and its partial derivatives. It reports the most important related thermodynamic equations for ice and sea ice properties.

High sampling rate thermistor string observations at the slope of Great Meteor Seamount - H. van Haren; R. Groenewegen; M. Laan; B. Koster (Ocean Science, 2005)
A high sampling rate (1 Hz) thermistor string has been built to accommodate the scientific need to accurately monitor high-frequency and vigorous internal wave and overturning processes in the ocean. The thermistors and their custom designed electronics can register temperature at an estimated precision of about 0.001° C with a response time faster than 0.25 s down to depths of 6000 m. With a quick in situ calibration using SBE 911 CTD an absolute accuracy of 0.005° C is obtained. The present string holds 128 sensors at 0.5 m intervals, which are all read-out within 0.5 s. When sampling at 1 Hz, the batteries and the memory capacity of the recorder allow for deployments of up to 2 weeks. In this paper, the instrument is described in some detail. Its performance is illustrated with examples from the first moored observations, which show Kelvin-Helmholtz overturning and very high-frequency (Doppler-shifted) internal waves besides occasionally large turbulent bores moving up the sloping side of Great Meteor Seamount, Canary Basin, North-Atlantic Ocean.

Numerical implementation and oceanographic application of the Gibbs thermodynamic potential of seawater - R. Feistel (Ocean Science, 2005)
The 2003 Gibbs thermodynamic potential function represents a very accurate, compact, consistent and comprehensive formulation of equilibrium properties of seawater. It is expressed in the International Temperature Scale ITS-90 and is fully consistent with the current scientific pure water standard, IAPWS-95. Source code examples in FORTRAN, C++ and Visual Basic are presented for the numerical implementation of the potential function and its partial derivatives, as well as for potential temperature. A collection of thermodynamic formulas and relations is given for possible applications in oceanography, from density and chemical potential over entropy and potential density to mixing heat and entropy production. For colligative properties like vapour pressure, freezing points, and for a Gibbs potential of sea ice, the equations relating the Gibbs function of seawater to those of vapour and ice are presented.

The reliability of grazing rate estimates from dilution experiments: Have we over-estimated rates of organic carbon consumption by microzooplankton? - J. R. Dolan,; K. McKeon (Ocean Science, 2005)
According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1) prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2) unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.