Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast u...

Two controversial tenets of metapopulation biology are whether patch quality and the surrounding matrix are more important to turnover (colonisation and extinction) than biogeography (patch area and isolation) and whether factors governing turnover during equilibrium also dominate nonequilibrium dynamics. We tested both tenets using 18 years of surveys for two secretive wetland birds, black and Virginia rails, during (1) a per...

Understanding how metapopulations persist in dynamic working landscapes requires assessing the behaviors of key actors that change patches as well as intrinsic factors driving turnover. Coupled human and natural systems ( CHANS ) research uses a multidisciplinary approach to identify the key actors, processes, and feedbacks that drive metapopulation and landscape dynamics. We describe a framework for modeling metapopulations i...

Climate and land‐use changes are thought to be the greatest threats to biodiversity, but few studies have directly measured their simultaneous impacts on species distributions. We used a unique historic resource—early 20th‐century bird surveys conducted by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues—paired with contemporary resurveys a century later to examine changes in bird distributions in California's Central Valley, one of the most in...

A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species’ ecological and life‐history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species’ traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in...

Genetic assignment methods provide an appealing approach for characterizing dispersal patterns on ecological time scales, but require sufficient genetic differentiation to accurately identify migrants and a large enough sample size of migrants to, for example, compare dispersal between sexes or age classes. We demonstrate that assignment methods can be rigorously used to characterize dispersal patterns in a marbled murrelet (...

Avian eggshells harbour microbes shortly after laying, and under appropriate ambient conditions they can multiply rapidly, penetrate through shell pores, infect egg contents and cause embryo mortality. We experimentally examined how incubation affects bacterial processes on the eggshells of pearl‐eyed thrashers Margarops fuscatus nesting in tropical montane and lowland forests in Puerto Rico. Bacteria and fungi grew rapidly on...

Although the poaching of nestlings for the pet trade is thought to contribute to the decline of many species of parrots, its effects have been poorly demonstrated. We calculated rates of mortality due to nest poaching in 23 studies of Neotropical parrots, representing 4024 nesting attempts in 21 species and 14 countries. We also examined how poaching rates vary with geographic region, presence of active protection programs, co...

The remnant wild population of California Condors ( Gymnogyps californianus ) of the 1980s exhibited a rapid population decline caused by high mortality rates among adult and immature birds. The most prominent mortality factor was lead poisoning resulting from ingestion of bullet fragments in carcasses. Successful captive breeding has allowed many birds to be released to the wild since 1992, based originally on an assumption t...