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Four global mass coral bleaching events have now been recorded. The first, in 1998, was associated with that year’s strong El Niño. Subsequent global-scale bleaching occurred in 2010 and then over the periods 2014–2017 and 2018–2025 (and likely ongoing). All these events also coincided with El Niños for at least part of the period. While El Niño is an important factor, each event has also occurred during a period of rising glo...
Oceanographic changes are occurring more rapidly in recent decades, with new implications for ocean ecosystems and adjacent human communities. It is important to bring attention to these changes while they are unfolding rather than after they have occurred. Here we report on a rapid shift toward colder, fresher water in the deep Gulf of Maine that, as of mid-June 2024, has persisted for at least six months. The shift likely re...
Merging trait‐based ecology and regime shift theory to anticipate community responses to warmingNARA Subscribed
Anthropogenic warming is altering species abundance, distribution, physiology, and more. How changes observed at the species level alter emergent community properties is an active and urgent area of research. Trait‐based ecology and regime shift theory provide complementary ways to understand climate change impacts on communities, but these two bodies of work are only rarely integrated. Lack of integration handicaps our abilit...
Fish contribute to the export of carbon out of the euphotic zone. They ingest organic carbon fixed by phytoplankton, store it in their tissues for their lifetime, and contribute to long‐term sequestration by producing sinking fecal pellets, respiring at depth, or via their own sinking carcasses. While the flux of carbon through fish is small relative to the export flux by plankton, humans have a direct influence on fish commun...
Unlike atmospheric weather forecasting, ocean forecasting is often reflexive; for many applications, the forecast and its dissemination can change the outcome, and is in this way, a part of the system. Reflexivity has implications for several ocean forecasting applications, such as fisheries management, endangered species management, toxic and invasive species management, and community science. The field of ocean system foreca...
The article by Meyer-Gutbrod and colleagues in this issue demonstrates that the endangered North Atlantic right whale’s preferred prey has declined as the Northwest Atlantic has warmed. Right whales are now spending more time foraging in historically colder habitats, but they are producing fewer calves. The low calf production could reflect a delay between the decline in the potential productivity of their traditional habitats...
Modeling marine pelagic fish species spatiotemporal distributions utilizing a maximum entropy approachNARA Subscribed
Understanding how ocean conditions influence fish distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change and forecasting how fish may be distributed in the future. Traditional species distribution models are often applied to scientific‐survey data, which include species presence‐absence information, to predict distributions. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are promising tools as they can be applied t...
Zooplankton fecal pellet flux is a highly variable component of the biological carbon pump. While fecal pellets can comprise 0 to nearly 100% of particulate organic carbon collected in sediment traps, mechanisms for this variability remain poorly understood. Fecal pellet carbon flux is a complex function of several variables. We present a model that incorporates individual‐scale metabolic processes to determine fecal pellet pr...
Migration model of post‐smolt A tlantic salmon ( S almo salar ) in the G ulf of M aineNARA Subscribed
Understanding how oceanographic factors independently and interactively influence fish behavior, physiology, and survival is essential for predicting the impact of climate change on fish. Such predictions are especially challenging for highly migratory species such as salmon that experience a broad range of conditions. We applied a novel modeling approach that combines an individual‐based particle model with a bioenergetics mo...
Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populationsNARA Subscribed
North American Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river‐specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic sa...
Remote climate forcing of decadal‐scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystemsNARA Subscribed
Decadal‐scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems can be remotely forced by climate‐associated atmosphere‐ocean interactions in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean Basins. This remote climate forcing is mediated primarily by basin‐ and hemispheric‐scale changes in ocean circulation. We review and synthesize results from process‐oriented field studies and retrospective analyses of time‐series data to document t...
The biogeography of marine plankton traitsNARA Subscribed
Changes in marine plankton communities driven by environmental variability impact the marine food web and global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and other elements. To predict and assess these community shifts and their consequences, ecologists are increasingly investigating how the functional traits of plankton determine their relative fitness along environmental and biological gradients. Laboratory, field and modelling studi...
Large‐scale coherence in New England lobster ( Homarus americanus ), settlement and associations with regional atmospheric conditionsNARA Subscribed
Time series of American lobster ( Homarus americanus ) postlarval settlement from southern New England to Atlantic Canada exhibit many common features, and a cluster analysis indicates a block of regions extending from Massachusetts to Maine that have coherent interannual variations. The spatial scale of this block suggests that variability in settlement is related to large‐scale, rather than local, processes. We examined the...
Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of f...
The Relation Between Productivity and Species Diversity in Temperate–arctic Marine EcosystemsNARA Subscribed
Energy variables, such as evapotranspiration, temperature, and productivity explain significant variation in the diversity of many groups of terrestrial plants and animals at local to global scales. Although the ocean represents the largest continuous habitat on earth with a vast spectrum of primary productivity and species richness, little is known about how productivity influences species diversity in marine systems. To sear...