To be useful for real-world applications, the results of ecological forecasts must be accompanied by estimates of uncertainty, i.e., measures of how reliable predictions are likely to be. In spread forecasting for invasive species, pervasive unknowns in invasion systems present many potential sources of uncertainty, from initial conditions to the structure of process-based models. Each relevant source must be integrated to acc...

Aim The global, human‐mediated dispersal of invasive insects is a major driver of ecosystem change, biodiversity loss, crop damage and other effects. Trade flows and invasive species propagule pressure are correlated, and their relationship is essential for predicting and managing future invasions. Invaders do not disperse exclusively from the species' native range. Instead, the bridgehead effect, where established, non‐native...