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Lightning detection and attribution to wildfire ignitions is a critical component of fire management worldwide to both reduce hazards of wildfire to values-at-risk and to enhance the potential for wildland fire to provide resource benefits in fire-adapted ecosystems. We compared two operational ground-based lightning detection networks used by fire managers to identify cloud-to-ground strokes within operationally-relevant dist...
Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood eventNARA Subscribed
The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains unde...
Observed and projected changes in snow accumulation and snowline in California’s snowy mountainsNARA Subscribed
The Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascades—California’s snowy mountains—are primary freshwater sources and natural reservoirs for the states of California and Nevada. These mountains receive precipitation overwhelmingly from wintertime storms including atmospheric rivers (ARs), much of it falling as snow at the higher elevations. Using a seven-decade record of daily observed temperature and precipitation as well as a snow reanaly...
Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and...
Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to ChileNARA Subscribed
We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitatio...
Hot and cold flavors of southern California’s Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfireNARA Subscribed
Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are associated with anomalous temperatures in coastal Southern California (SoCal). As dry air flows over SoCal’s coastal ranges on its way from the elevated Great Basin down to sea level, all SAWs warm adiabatically. Many but not all SAWs produce coastal heat events. The strongest regionally averaged SAWs tend to be cold. In fact, some of the hottest and coldest observed temperatures in coastal SoCal are...
Global climatology of synoptically‐forced downslope windsNARA Subscribed
Downslope winds are mesoscale mountain meteorological phenomena that contribute to localized temperature extremes and contribute to numerous societal and environmental impacts. Whereas previous studies have examined local downslope winds, no known efforts have attempted to identify and characterize meso‐ to synoptic‐scale downslope winds globally using a common approach. We use a conceptual model for downslope winds that emplo...
Impact of the North American monsoon on wildfire activity in the southwest United StatesNARA Subscribed
The North American monsoon (NAM) is an annual climate system phenomenon that develops over the Sierra Madre Occidental in western Mexico and spreads northwards into the southwest United States from June through September bringing large quantities of rainfall and lightning, which can vary greatly on intra‐ and inter‐annual timescales. The timing of the NAM onset can lengthen or shorten the wildfire season in the southwest Unite...
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