Temporal variability in abundance and composition of species in marine ecosystems results from a combination of internal processes, external drivers, and stochasticity. One way to explore the temporal variability in an ecosystem is through temporal stability, measured using the inverse of the coefficient of variation for biomass of single species. The effect of temperature and fisheries on the variability of the Barents Sea fo...

Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (NSSH, Clupea harengus ) is a key species in the food‐web and for fisheries in the north‐east Atlantic. NSSH has been the focus of many ecological and fisheries studies over decades and several hypotheses have been put forward to explain variations in its recruitment. We conducted an extensive literature review of the processes that have been hypothesized to control recruitment at age‐2 years....

Many marine species exhibit poleward migrations following climate change. The Barents Sea, a doorstep to the fast‐warming Arctic, is experiencing large scale changes in its environment and its communities. Tracking and anticipating changes for management and conservation purposes at the scale of the ecosystem necessitate quantitative knowledge on individual species distribution drivers. This paper aims at identifying the facto...

Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems ( MSES ) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different...

A food web is an ecological network and its topological description consists of the list of nodes, i.e., trophospecies, the list of links, i.e., trophic interactions, and the direction of interactions (who is the prey and who is the predator). Food web topologies are widely used in ecology to describe structural properties of communities or ecosystems. The selection of trophospecies and trophic interactions can be realized in...

Aim This study focuses on the influence of methodological choices on the predictive performance of macroecological models ( MEM s), i.e. statistical models designed to predict patterns of biodiversity using environmental predictors. We emphasize the influence of three methodological choices: (1) the choice of the currency in which the abundance of each species is measured, i.e. numbers of individuals or biomass; (2) the rules...

An assessment of the potential for 17 fish or shellfish stocks or stock groups to move from the sub‐ A rctic areas into the A rctic O cean was conducted. A panel of 34 experts was convened to assess the impact of climate change on the potential movement of the 17 stocks or stock groups. The panel considered the exposure of species to climate change, the sensitivity of species to these changes and the adaptive capacity of each...

The processes that control the spatial distribution of North Sea whiting ( Merlangius merlangus ) spawning adults are investigated using a statistical multi‐model approach. Models of external and internal controls on the population, such as environmental conditions, spatial constraints, present or past spatial distribution, and demographic state of the population, are evaluated, compared and ranked to select those that are the...

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology. The spatial distribution of fish populations observed in the wild results from the complex interactions of multiple controls both external or internal to the fish populations. Whilst species distribution models (SDMs) have been mostly concerned with static description of species distribution as a function of e...

Large amplitude variations in recruitment of small pelagic fish result from interactions between a fluctuating environment and population dynamics processes such as spawning. The spatial extent and location of spawning, which is critical to the fate of eggs and larvae, can vary strongly from year to year, as a result of changing population structure and environmental conditions. Spawning habitat can be divided into ‘potential...

The spatial extent of small pelagic fish spawning habitat is influenced by environmental factors and by the state of the adult population. In return, the configuration of spawning habitat affects recruitment and therefore the future structure of the adult population. Interannual changes in spatial patterns of spawning reflect variations in adult population structures and their environment. The present study describes the histo...

In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north‐east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long‐term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlanti...