To be useful for real-world applications, the results of ecological forecasts must be accompanied by estimates of uncertainty, i.e., measures of how reliable predictions are likely to be. In spread forecasting for invasive species, pervasive unknowns in invasion systems present many potential sources of uncertainty, from initial conditions to the structure of process-based models. Each relevant source must be integrated to acc...

Aim Climatic equilibrium is a foundational principle in ecological theory and models used in conservation, but has been challenged by growing evidence of disequilibrium, particularly for long‐lived, sessile organisms like trees. Here, we calculated range filling for North American trees to detect the degree to which trees are filling their potential climatic niches, and to assess climatic and non‐climatic drivers of underfilli...