We address the question of separating the ocean’s deterministic response to time-dependent forcing from its intrinsic chaotic variability. Ideally, one could compute the ensemble mean directly without performing numerous realizations, but this requires knowledge or closure of the second-order statistics — the classical turbulent-closure problem, here recast for a non-equilibrium, geophysical setting. Building on the ideas of n...

Coastal zones have large social, economic and environmental values. They are more densely populated than the hinterland and concentrate large economic assets, critical infrastructures and human activities such as tourism, fisheries, navigation. Furthermore, coastal oceans are home to a wealth of living marine resources and very productive ecosystems. Yet, coastal zones are exposed to various natural and anthropogenic hazards....